Since the launch of the simExchange, the prediction market has aimed to forecast the number of units a game or console will sell. We have captured the quantity forecast for games, but we have not addressed the quality side of the games.
The simExchange is proud to announce the introduction of new contracts for forecasting game quality. The standard for quality will be Metacritic, the leading publication for review aggregation.
Metacritic futures contracts forecast the Metascore a game will receive. A Metascore is "a weighted average of all of the scores assigned by individual critics" for that game. All Metascores are between 1 and 100. Metacritic futures pay 1 DKP for each point of Metascore, so that a 90 DKP future forecasts a 90 Metascore.
The testing of Metacritic futures will begin Monday with a contract for Halo 3. This contract will enter IPO Phase 1 at 11 AM. The contract is set to freeze one week before the game's release. We will be using this opportunity to test this new type of contract, so policies regarding how this type of contract are still up to determination. Enjoy!
September 8 UPDATE: The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (DS) has been listed for a Metacritic Future. This contract will trade slightly differently. It will continue trading until a cash out period 14 days after the game is released.