Sales of Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3) as reported by NPD here do not include copies bundled with the PS3 hardware.
|Title||Actual units||Expected units||% From Expected|
|Total Hardware Units||2,412,400||2,328,600||+3.60%|
|Rank||Title||Actual units||Expected units||% From Expected|
|1||Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (PS3)||774,600||720,100||+7.57%|
|2||Guitar Hero On Tour (DS)||422,300||--||--|
|3||Ninja Gaiden II (Xbox 360)||372,700||--||--|
|4||Wii Fit (Wii)||372,700||471,500||-21.06%|
|5||Wii Play (Wii)||359,100||--||--|
|6||Battlefield: Bad Company (Xbox 360)||346,800||--||--|
|7||Mario Kart (Wii)||322,400||316,800||+1.77%|
|8||Lego Indiana Jones (Wii)||294,500||--||--|
|9||Lego Indiana Jones (DS)||267,800||--||--|
|10||Lego Indiana Jones (PS2)||260,300||--||--|
|Total Software Sales||$872.6M||$627.6M||+39.04%|
How exactly does this work?
Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using virtual currency called DKP, players buy virtual futures contracts that are under-predicting sales and short sell futures that are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market."
About the predictions
Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).