November 2009 NPD Data

• US Hardware in November 2009

  Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  Nintendo DS	1,700,000	1,728,200	-1.63%
  Nintendo Wii	1,260,000	1,183,800	+6.44%
  Xbox 360	819,500	713,600	+14.84%
  PLAYSTATION 3	710,400	787,600	-9.80%
  PlayStation Portable	293,900	323,900	-9.26%
  PlayStation 2	203,100	--	--
  Total Hardware Units (excludes PS2)	1,406,000	1,486,700	-5.43%

• US Software in November 2009

  Rank	Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  1	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360)	4,200,000	3,243,300	+29.50%
  2	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3)	1,870,000	1,499,700	+24.69%
  3	New Super Mario Bros (Wii)	1,390,000	1,371,400	+1.36%
  4	Assassin's Creed II (Xbox 360)	794,700	749,000	+6.1%
  5	Left 4 Dead 2 (Xbox 360)	744,000	731,300	+1.74%
  6	Wii Sports Resort (Wii)	720,200	523,700	-27.28%
  7	Wii Fit Plus (Wii)	679,000	--	--
  8	Assassin's Creed II (PS3)	448,400	455,300	-1.52%
  9	Dragon Age: Origins (Xbox 360)	362,100	--	--
  10	Mario Kart (Wii)	315,000	--	--
  	Total Software Sales	$1,406M	$1,486.7M	-5.43%

The market also tracked the sales of Grand Theft Auto 4: Episodes from Liberty City (Xbox 360), DJ Hero (Xbox 360), and Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Wii), which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Futures for these games will cash out at 31.50 DKP.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).