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Super Mario Galaxy (Wii)
at 6:34PM PST on January 30, 2007.
Seems like this stock needs some hard figures. According to this Gamasutra article, Super Mario Sunshine sold 5.5 million copies in its lifetime. Note that this was on the Gamecube, and the Wii looks to have a higher install base than the Gamecube does. Note that Super Mario Sunshine received somewhat tepid reviews, such as an 8.0 from Gamespot.
Super Mario Galaxy will only sell less than Super Mario Sunshine did if it is an awful game, and it doesn't look like that's going to be the case.
The Gamasutra article is here:
Full disclosure: I own a bunch of shares in Super Mario Galaxy, mainly because I listened to my own advice.
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