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Mario Kart (Wii)
at 1:27PM PST on November 20, 2007.
I think the story with the Wii is that it has greatly expanded the video game market to casual players. I see the 100 million+ forecast that we have as assuming many people who don't generally play video games picking up a Wii for Wii sports. This is confirmed anecdotally and also from NPD sales.
Wii hardware sales are very strong, but software sales have lagged. Mario Galaxy does not appear to be selling anywhere near the numbers we had been expecting--the problem is because we took the Gamecube numbers and scaled them out to the Wii install base. Metroid 3 did no better on the Wii than it did on GameCube.
The problem is that many of the new gamers who buy Wiis have no intention of buying anymore games--they bought the Wii for Wii sports. For this reason, we can merely expand Wii game sales based on Wii hardware sales.
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