I have posted this comment before, but for whatever reason, it disappeared. I am reposting it again, since I think it is quite important :
Don't forget that US NPD Nov 07 (does not include Canada) only cover November 4 - December 1. From IGN : Mass effect is released Nov 20 in US (only 2 weeks for US), Nov 22 in Australia (not covered by NPD US), Nov 23 in Europe (not covered by NPD).
Since 1 Milion is for WW, and it is 3 weeks figure (not two weeks for NPD Nov 07), and since we are not sure whether it is shipped (usual MSFT reference) or sold to (NPD reference), it is quite dangerous to assume too high a sales # for mass effect. A lot of DKP can be burned/lost if you estimate too high.
If you assume 40% US, 40% Europe, and 20% for the remaining region (CAnada + Australia + Singapore etc), and assuming 80% of Mass Effect is done on the first 2 weeks (front loaded), and assuming that the 1 Million figure is shipped figure, not sold figure, and using 80% sold through figure, then the US figure can be only as high as = 80% (for two weeks) x 80% (convert shipped to sold) x 40% (for US only) x 1 Million = 256K.
You can change the calculation to percentage that you are comfortable with, and change your bidding / position accordingly.
Additional note : I believe that the "less than 3 weeks" mentioned in the article is using Nov 20 - Dec 8, because : - it is less than 21 days (3 weeks) - IIRC, sales are usually tracked each week, with Saturday as the usual cut-off date.
2
Don't forget that US NPD Nov 07 (does not include Canada) only cover November 4 - December 1.
From IGN :
Mass effect is released Nov 20 in US (only 2 weeks for US), Nov 22 in Australia (not covered by NPD US), Nov 23 in Europe (not covered by NPD).
Since 1 Milion is for WW, and it is 3 weeks figure (not two weeks for NPD Nov 07), and since we are not sure whether it is shipped (usual MSFT reference) or sold to (NPD reference), it is quite dangerous to assume too high a sales # for mass effect. A lot of DKP can be burned/lost if you estimate too high.
If you assume 40% US, 40% Europe, and 20% for the remaining region (CAnada + Australia + Singapore etc), and assuming 80% of Mass Effect is done on the first 2 weeks (front loaded), and assuming that the 1 Million figure is shipped figure, not sold figure, and using 80% sold through figure, then the US figure can be only as high as = 80% (for two weeks) x 80% (convert shipped to sold) x 40% (for US only) x 1 Million = 256K.
You can change the calculation to percentage that you are comfortable with, and change your bidding / position accordingly.
Additional note : I believe that the "less than 3 weeks" mentioned in the article is using Nov 20 - Dec 8, because :
- it is less than 21 days (3 weeks)
- IIRC, sales are usually tracked each week, with Saturday as the usual cut-off date.