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Xbox 360 (Xbox 360)
at 10:47AM PST on December 13, 2007.
I definitely agree with your Wii assessment. When Nintendo was the only game in town, or the Goliath of the industry, they were able to put up huge numbers. But now that there's more competition, I think they're going to have trouble maintaining their momentum to get to 100 million in console sales.
I think part of the problem with over-estimating console sales is the awesome performance of the PS2 last generation. I think that was a fluke, and that no console will end up putting up PS2-esque numbers for a while. The combination of killer system exclusives (GTA, MGS, GT, FF), trendiness, and emerging integrated technology (DVD Player) was a huge win for the PS2, and nothing like that exists in this current generation. Plus, the PS2 didn't have the kind of competition that current systems have.
One of the biggest upsides that I do see, though, is the aging userbase of the video game market. People my age (26) are getting more wealthy as their careers improve, and are able to spend more money on their habits. I know that this has directly translated into my living room being a shrine of current technology, with all three major systems attached to a bitchin tv. I think the current systems can do big numbers, but not the kind of ungodly numbers the PS2 did. I don't think that 50 million is out of the question for PS3 and Xbox, but I'd be surprised at anything more than 60. Wii I don't think will break 70 million.
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