@Just_Ben, Going past the numbers, is anyone else concerned that we did a really bad job predicting this month, compared to previous months? We're usually pretty good (last month we had 6 futures within 10% over/under), but not this month. Personally, I'm attributing it to a combination of things (while not making excuses): a) this is the first year we've done holiday futures, and we didn't really have a solid grasp of what that meant, since we underestimated almost everything. In some cases (Manhunt 2) we bought into hype and news, not sales; in others, we convinced ourselves that sales couldn't possibly be more than what some other reference material said (Rock Band). b) people relying too much on VGC. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but they don't track the same data that NPD do. Example: they were pretty close on Assassin's Creed PS3 (around 10% [under, not the 10-15% over they "try" to be]), but WAY off on Rock Band (almost 150% under[but so were we]). While Assassin's Creed PS3 is an OK prediction on their part, there's no excuse for our wildly inaccurate estimate being closer than theirs, if they're supposed to be mimicking NPD data for a LIVING. I've said it before, and I'll say it as long as people keep using VGC for NPD Futures: to use VGC data as fact for NPD Futures is foolish.
Looking back on my past comments, I realize they sound a bit jerk-y. I certainly don't mean to gloat, but I'm very very excited. I'm sorry to everyone who lost this month, I'm sure you'll do better next month!
I'm sure I'll think of more things to post later, but for now, dinner calls.
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Going past the numbers, is anyone else concerned that we did a really bad job predicting this month, compared to previous months? We're usually pretty good (last month we had 6 futures within 10% over/under), but not this month. Personally, I'm attributing it to a combination of things (while not making excuses):
a) this is the first year we've done holiday futures, and we didn't really have a solid grasp of what that meant, since we underestimated almost everything. In some cases (Manhunt 2) we bought into hype and news, not sales; in others, we convinced ourselves that sales couldn't possibly be more than what some other reference material said (Rock Band).
b) people relying too much on VGC. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but they don't track the same data that NPD do. Example: they were pretty close on Assassin's Creed PS3 (around 10% [under, not the 10-15% over they "try" to be]), but WAY off on Rock Band (almost 150% under[but so were we]). While Assassin's Creed PS3 is an OK prediction on their part, there's no excuse for our wildly inaccurate estimate being closer than theirs, if they're supposed to be mimicking NPD data for a LIVING. I've said it before, and I'll say it as long as people keep using VGC for NPD Futures: to use VGC data as fact for NPD Futures is foolish.
Looking back on my past comments, I realize they sound a bit jerk-y. I certainly don't mean to gloat, but I'm very very excited. I'm sorry to everyone who lost this month, I'm sure you'll do better next month!
I'm sure I'll think of more things to post later, but for now, dinner calls.