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Super Mario Galaxy (Wii)
at 8:58PM PST on December 19, 2007.
Honestly, I have no idea. I don't generally trade things that I can't objectively look at. And try as I might, I can't objectively look at a core Mario game. I can't separate the 8 year old away from my predictions. "It'll sell 50 million!" "It's only one month, 8-year-old-Me." "Doesn't matter! It's Mario!"
BUT, that being said, let's check it out, using my friend and VGC's, Fuzzy Math.
I would say 1/3rd of people buying a Wii will buy SMG (conservative estimate). I fully expect DEC Wii to be 1.75mln or higher (981k NOV sales + 600k "shock and awe" from last week + 250k-ish extra week sales), so that's about 575k (1,750,000 Wiis x 1/3rd).
Based on last month's sales (obviously not a good example, since it was release month), there was an over 100% attach rate (1,123,070 SMG/981,000 Wii). That's just silly. But, look at the total of SMG sold in NOV vs Wii's sold in America (that we know of from NPD Data March 2007-Nov 2007). There were 4,169,000 Wii's sold in the US during that time. Call it 8.5mln total Wii's sold, from launch to today, in the US (I think that's a fair extrapolation, based on the constant sellouts, and the Nintendo declaration from Jan that they'd sold 3.2mln Wii's in the US). So, based on my conservative attach rate of 1/3rd of Wii's having SMG, that's 2,805,000 copies of SMG that should be sold during Nov and Dec, in the US. It sold 1,123,070 last month. 2,805,000-1,123,070=1,681,930
So if I had to make a prediction, I'd say 168.19 DKP, I guess.
That being said, I can see your point, but I could also see it going nuts and selling like 2mln copies.
I know this is very convoluted logic, taking a number of things for granted, and assuming a lot.
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