As suggested by you, after focusing on X360 in Nov 06, I found 5 new games that were covered in Nov 06, and compare their Nov 06 # to their Dec 06 #. The games : Release date (weeks covered in Nov 06 NPD) : Increase (Decrease is minus) Need Speed: Carbon : Oct 31 (4 weeks) : +41% Gears of War : Nov 7 (3 weeks) : -5% Call of Duty 3 : Nov 7 (3 weeks) : +23% WWE Smackdown vs Raw 2007 : Nov 10 (3 weeks) : +10% Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six : Vegas : Nov 20 (1 weeks) : +193%.
Note about percentage : I did not calculate it using weekly rate, but using total month # (so some game might seem to increase, even though their weekly rate actual decrease)
We can safely ignore Rainbow Six, since it is only 1 week. (+193%) Uncharted is released on Nov 16, which mean it is 3 weeks (3 times saturday and sunday), since Nov 07 covered period until Dec 1, 2007. Using 3 weeks game, we have increase that ranged from -5% (min.) to 23% (max.)
If we assume that Uncharted have 23% increase over Nov 07, using monthly # (not weekly rate #), then the maximum # for it on Dec 07 is 1.23 x 117K = 144K. Which mean, the current 14.3 DKP is right on target.
However, since a lot of retailer feedback mentioned that Uncharted is not "moving / selling" well in December, if we change the percentage from +23% to -5% (using retailer feedback and history of 2006 as guidance), then the # should be 0.95 * 117K = 111K. In other words, the current 14.3 DKP is 28% overpriced.
Personally, I believe that Dec 07 for Uncharted might be only 8 DKP, instead of 11.1 DKP. This is because it is on PS3, not X360. If it is on X360, I am willing to bet on 11.1 DKP or more.
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As suggested by you, after focusing on X360 in Nov 06, I found 5 new games that were covered in Nov 06, and compare their Nov 06 # to their Dec 06 #.
The games : Release date (weeks covered in Nov 06 NPD) : Increase (Decrease is minus)
Need Speed: Carbon : Oct 31 (4 weeks) : +41%
Gears of War : Nov 7 (3 weeks) : -5%
Call of Duty 3 : Nov 7 (3 weeks) : +23%
WWE Smackdown vs Raw 2007 : Nov 10 (3 weeks) : +10%
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six : Vegas : Nov 20 (1 weeks) : +193%.
Note about percentage : I did not calculate it using weekly rate, but using total month # (so some game might seem to increase, even though their weekly rate actual decrease)
We can safely ignore Rainbow Six, since it is only 1 week. (+193%)
Uncharted is released on Nov 16, which mean it is 3 weeks (3 times saturday and sunday), since Nov 07 covered period until Dec 1, 2007.
Using 3 weeks game, we have increase that ranged from -5% (min.) to 23% (max.)
If we assume that Uncharted have 23% increase over Nov 07, using monthly # (not weekly rate #), then the maximum # for it on Dec 07 is 1.23 x 117K = 144K. Which mean, the current 14.3 DKP is right on target.
However, since a lot of retailer feedback mentioned that Uncharted is not "moving / selling" well in December, if we change the percentage from +23% to -5% (using retailer feedback and history of 2006 as guidance), then the # should be 0.95 * 117K = 111K.
In other words, the current 14.3 DKP is 28% overpriced.
Personally, I believe that Dec 07 for Uncharted might be only 8 DKP, instead of 11.1 DKP. This is because it is on PS3, not X360. If it is on X360, I am willing to bet on 11.1 DKP or more.