I think you ignored much of my previous post. Many of these pioneering games sold spectacularly back then because there was not much competition and the market was less fragmented. Look at the Mario games, they sold better than any PS2 game on systems that had a smaller install base than the PS2, increased install base does not always correlate with higher sales. Micheal Jackson's Thriller sold over 104 million copies, something that will probably never be repeated. Why? Even though the number of people who can buy CDs physically or digitally has increased, it is unlikely with the increased fragmentation of the market, more competition and the increased focus on niche markets, that such a moment of collective agreement will come again. The same with the video game industry, many of those games were supported by a lack of competition and the fact that few games after them then were able to emulate their style or better it.
Furthermore, look at the Sims. The first game broke records, having sold much better than Starcraft and having the regular release of expansion packs to keep interest in it alive. The Sims 2 sold significantly less than the Sims. While it is true that the Sims did not reach national obsession level in America (the country is much to large and fragmented for that to happen), it was very popular and I know people who still play it from time to time. I doubt that Starcraft II will experience the same sort of drop, since it is supported more by hardcore players that stick with a series, but I believe that it will experience diminishing returns, in that while it has garnered a significant reputation, like Unreal Tournament III, it won't necessarily correlate to sales.
I also believe that many of the people who grew up on Starcraft will have aged to a point that they might not have time to invest in games as much as they would like. Due to that they don't want to take the risk of messing with their lives by getting hooked on Starcraft II. It is possible that those younger generations who have heard great things about the first game, will be interested in this game. But it is likely that they will be more interested in consoles (as they have become more popular as of late); interested in more cooperative games; or likely to try MMOs, other genres (FPS, RPG, Sports) or other games in the RTS genre, as there are so many great series to choose from now (as I listed in this post, though there are certainly more).
Also, you ignored my assertion about Game Cafes, which have become more popular. I believe that this will take a significant chunk of sales out of the game, as I stated before. I will not repeat myself again here (you can read this post for more detail analysis).
There is also the point that Starcraft had very low spec requirements, which allowed it to be easily run on people's computers, even if they were old. This greatly helped sales and the new engine and effects on Starcraft II, while nice, require better hardware, something that I think will be detrimental to sales if the engine is not highly scalable (we have seen with sales of Enemy Territory, Crysis and Unreal Tournament III that high spec games probably won't sell that well due to hardware issues).
There are other reasons why I believe that Starcraft won't sell as much as the current price predicts, but I will look into them (and the assertions made here) more in order to see whether they are viable or not. As of now, 700-900DKP is still my target range for this game.
5
I think you ignored much of my previous post. Many of these pioneering games sold spectacularly back then because there was not much competition and the market was less fragmented. Look at the Mario games, they sold better than any PS2 game on systems that had a smaller install base than the PS2, increased install base does not always correlate with higher sales. Micheal Jackson's Thriller sold over 104 million copies, something that will probably never be repeated. Why? Even though the number of people who can buy CDs physically or digitally has increased, it is unlikely with the increased fragmentation of the market, more competition and the increased focus on niche markets, that such a moment of collective agreement will come again. The same with the video game industry, many of those games were supported by a lack of competition and the fact that few games after them then were able to emulate their style or better it.
Furthermore, look at the Sims. The first game broke records, having sold much better than Starcraft and having the regular release of expansion packs to keep interest in it alive. The Sims 2 sold significantly less than the Sims. While it is true that the Sims did not reach national obsession level in America (the country is much to large and fragmented for that to happen), it was very popular and I know people who still play it from time to time. I doubt that Starcraft II will experience the same sort of drop, since it is supported more by hardcore players that stick with a series, but I believe that it will experience diminishing returns, in that while it has garnered a significant reputation, like Unreal Tournament III, it won't necessarily correlate to sales.
I also believe that many of the people who grew up on Starcraft will have aged to a point that they might not have time to invest in games as much as they would like. Due to that they don't want to take the risk of messing with their lives by getting hooked on Starcraft II. It is possible that those younger generations who have heard great things about the first game, will be interested in this game. But it is likely that they will be more interested in consoles (as they have become more popular as of late); interested in more cooperative games; or likely to try MMOs, other genres (FPS, RPG, Sports) or other games in the RTS genre, as there are so many great series to choose from now (as I listed in this post, though there are certainly more).
Also, you ignored my assertion about Game Cafes, which have become more popular. I believe that this will take a significant chunk of sales out of the game, as I stated before. I will not repeat myself again here (you can read this post for more detail analysis).
There is also the point that Starcraft had very low spec requirements, which allowed it to be easily run on people's computers, even if they were old. This greatly helped sales and the new engine and effects on Starcraft II, while nice, require better hardware, something that I think will be detrimental to sales if the engine is not highly scalable (we have seen with sales of Enemy Territory, Crysis and Unreal Tournament III that high spec games probably won't sell that well due to hardware issues).
There are other reasons why I believe that Starcraft won't sell as much as the current price predicts, but I will look into them (and the assertions made here) more in order to see whether they are viable or not. As of now, 700-900DKP is still my target range for this game.