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Mario Party DS (DS)
at 3:14PM PST on January 11, 2008.
RE: Japan : Mario Party DS hit 1.5 Million
And I got a pretty big bet that it's going to be more than 350K. If it only sold 350K, I will lose some money. If it is only 300K or even 250K, I will lose big money. I can hardly wait for NPD data.
Why I am confident with my 370K ?
The game was release on Nov 19, so Nov NPD only cover 2 weeks sales (as you mentioned), which give us weekly rate of 180K (rounded down). Since
- Dec NPD is 5 weeks
- weekly rates of games in Dec is usually double Nov
- Nintendo games usually have better legs (especially the casual games)
- games usually have lower rate a month after launch,
Considering above factors, I decide = 5 x 150K = 750K. With 350K price, I have margin of safety (MOS) of 50%, which made me dare to buy up to the max.
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