Sorry for not breaking out the calculator...I write in haste. ~33% growth would be correct.
You are comparing apples to oranges though. The marketbase has increased each year the game has been on sale. Therefore its potential is about the same (plus a little growth, definately unequal to the total growth over a decade). But here we are saying "a little growth" is 23-33% on a NICHE game.
This isn't mario we're talking about. This is a niche game, that IF you were into RTS you will likely be interested in Starcraft 2. How many RTS do you see breaking 10 million? None.
Why not talk more about how Starcraft is the best selling RTS of all time, but still couldn't top an ancient game like Lineage which has been building its user base for just as long. Where's all this growth coming from for Starcraft 2? South Korea? Doesn't everyone already play that over there? Competition is stiffer than it has ever been, which well, negates growth.
Also Call of Duty does not count because it was an outsourced "sequel". Call of Duty 1&2 did not perform similarly. Call of Duty 3 ..did it sell more than Call of Duty 2 on PC?
I'm not saying there will be no growth, I'm saying an additional 3 million+ sales in today's competition is a poor prediction based on facts available.
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Sorry for not breaking out the calculator...I write in haste. ~33% growth would be correct.
You are comparing apples to oranges though. The marketbase has increased each year the game has been on sale. Therefore its potential is about the same (plus a little growth, definately unequal to the total growth over a decade). But here we are saying "a little growth" is 23-33% on a NICHE game.
This isn't mario we're talking about. This is a niche game, that IF you were into RTS you will likely be interested in Starcraft 2. How many RTS do you see breaking 10 million? None.
Why not talk more about how Starcraft is the best selling RTS of all time, but still couldn't top an ancient game like Lineage which has been building its user base for just as long. Where's all this growth coming from for Starcraft 2? South Korea? Doesn't everyone already play that over there? Competition is stiffer than it has ever been, which well, negates growth.
Also Call of Duty does not count because it was an outsourced "sequel". Call of Duty 1&2 did not perform similarly. Call of Duty 3 ..did it sell more than Call of Duty 2 on PC?
I'm not saying there will be no growth, I'm saying an additional 3 million+ sales in today's competition
is a poor prediction based on facts available.