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God of War III (PS3)
at 5:18PM PST on May 11, 2008.
Your explanation is reasonable. However, past sales of performance of PS3 game said that this logic might not be valid.
Compare DMC3 & DMC4. DMC4 first month sales is < 10% higher than DMC3 first month sales (all US data). The reasons you mention is applicable to DMC3 (released late in PS2's life cycle, 2005 March) and DMC4 (less to compete against what was available on PS3). I couldn't quantify the reason why GoW 3 will be released at the height of PS3 popularity and sales, since we are not sure of the exact release date (it could be late 2009, it could be late 2008, or somewhere in between).
Based on DMC3 & DMC4, I don't see any reason to expect higher than 10% improvement from GOW 2 to GOW 3. Even if I decide to be
, and put 30% improvement over GOW 2 figure, I can still only come up with 4 Million GLS, which is much lower (25%) than current 5.4 Million prediction. If I use the 10% improvement, the GLS should be only 3.3 Million (maximum), which mean 40% profit margin from current price.
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