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Diablo 3 (PC)
at 12:39PM PST on July 11, 2008.
Woa!...Standard deviation....normal distribution....I'm having Quantitative Analysis flashbacks here. Crap....now that I think about it, I start Quantitative Analysis 2 in the fall.....I wonder if i can use the SE for homework....haha
Anyway, you make great points. Especially about how people tend to estimate what peoples average estimation will be rather then what the game will actually sell. However, even that estimation is affected by sales trends, as if a game becomes very popular, one would estimate that peoples estimations would increase, so essentially your doing the same thing. In general, the longer a game is listed, the smaller the standard deviation from the mean the sample will become, baring drastic changes in the market.
So say a game sells for 5 years. I game delisted 1 year after it comes out will be less accurate then a game that gets delisted 2 or 3 years after. However, I would say that 2-3 years after a game comes out, the market will have (generally) stabilized enough, and sales will be fallowing a predictable pattern, that a game delisted at that point in time will probable be 95% accurate. I can not support this with numbers, as I don't have any, this is just what I would imagine would be true based on experience. So if you have numbers to prove me wrong, by all means post them, I won't take offense.
My mane concern is, if a game get's delisted, and then something drastic happens that does change the market (game suddenly gets a cult fallowing and sales start going back up for example) is there a process on SE by which a game can get RElisted? There might be some occasions where that could be appropriate.
BTW, this is an awesome debate. That's why I like SE....intelligent people.
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