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Diablo 3 (PC)
at 6:02PM PST on July 11, 2008.
Well I think that predictions overshooting the actual sales would be very very unusual. A game isn't delisted usually until sales slow down significantly, and that slow down is taken into account by the market. The only way an overshoot would happen is if it seemed like sales would be steady for a while, the game was delisted, and then sales stopped abruptly for some random reason...like the company goes out of business and stops producing copies for sale in the first place or something random.
As far as the other scenario, like I said before, i think we could have a system where we could bid on the effect of certain events on the life time sales of a game. In other words, imagine a graph of the lifetime sales. There are basically two types of patterns. One where a game sells a bunch at first, and then sells less and less over time until sales stop. The other graph would be similar, except after sales slow down, there are little spikes every once in a while, when an expansion comes out, when a game develops a fallowing, etc. The problem is that at the beginning we cant predict when these spikes will occur or how many there will be. We do, however, usually get a good sense that a spike will be coming shortly before it arrives. My suggestion would be to find a way to bid on how large we believe/expect these spikes to be. I think it can be done. The only issue would be your first point, letting people know about it. However, i think that the trade page could have a section informing people what spikes are being bid on, similar to how it shows the highest increasing and decreasing stocks of the day.
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