@deftangel, I think Wii will do something between 100 Million (worst case scenario, only happen IF SCE & MSFT do something to shorten PS3 and X360 life, and the new console made Wii later days sales goes down significantly) up to 160 Million, Max (happen IF Wii can get PS2 like years of life, and full-HD penetration didn't fully happen by Wii's end of life time. In other words, best case scenario).
Since this is Wii, and their new market is a big unknown factor, I might underestimated their influence. But so far, I think the majority Wii user (>50%) came from hardcore + some PS2 casual user, while the minority is non-gamer (including older people, women, lapsed gamer -> someone who played game a long time ago, but didn't play games in recent years). Once we get to year 4 (2010) and beyond, we would be able to see more clearly whether Wii would "only achieve PS2 figure" or "go way beyond PS2 figure". If the latter case happen, I wouldn't be surprised at 190 - 200 Million GLS.
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I think Wii will do something between 100 Million (worst case scenario, only happen IF SCE & MSFT do something to shorten PS3 and X360 life, and the new console made Wii later days sales goes down significantly) up to 160 Million, Max (happen IF Wii can get PS2 like years of life, and full-HD penetration didn't fully happen by Wii's end of life time. In other words, best case scenario).
Since this is Wii, and their new market is a big unknown factor, I might underestimated their influence. But so far, I think the majority Wii user (>50%) came from hardcore + some PS2 casual user, while the minority is non-gamer (including older people, women, lapsed gamer -> someone who played game a long time ago, but didn't play games in recent years). Once we get to year 4 (2010) and beyond, we would be able to see more clearly whether Wii would "only achieve PS2 figure" or "go way beyond PS2 figure". If the latter case happen, I wouldn't be surprised at 190 - 200 Million GLS.