I was shorting at 2.7m, didn't push the price down yesterday.
I'm basing my short on the Reggie's comments that they shipped "roughly" 50% more this year and I believe that to be heavily front loaded into November for the Black Sunday weekend (where clearly they sold what they shipped).
So my calculation is 1.5 * (Nov 2007 + Dec 2008) - 2m.
A complete punt to be honest but I'll either lose nothing or get a big win. If they hit 3m for December then it'll be worth the net loss to see the meltdown :D
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I was shorting at 2.7m, didn't push the price down yesterday.
I'm basing my short on the Reggie's comments that they shipped "roughly" 50% more this year and I believe that to be heavily front loaded into November for the Black Sunday weekend (where clearly they sold what they shipped).
So my calculation is 1.5 * (Nov 2007 + Dec 2008) - 2m.
A complete punt to be honest but I'll either lose nothing or get a big win. If they hit 3m for December then it'll be worth the net loss to see the meltdown :D