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at 7:36AM PST on January 12, 2009.
RE: EEDAR: Estimates Wii sold 3.2m in December
You cash out to avoid taking a "possible" permanent loss. Have you think about the other scenario : the price never went to 3.2, because other player (probably won't be me, since I am getting close to my limit now) might keep the price down, and you LOST your opportunity to win big this month (assuming your original prediction come true).
I currently have 50K stocks, with average selling price of 260. If NPD have it at 3.2 (like EEDAR predicted), I will lose 3 Million. If NPD have it at 2 Million (it could be lower, but let's say 2 Million), like I predicted, then I win 3 Million. If my most pessimistic estimate (1.7 Million) is right, I stand to win 4.5 Million, but this figure is reaching.
1:1 bet is something that I normally would avoid, but I am willing to trust my source for this.
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