Just to clarify my position. My understanding is that gamers in China have to pay to set up an account for The9. They then buy time to play games via The9's network for games they have "activated".
It's the activation bit that is the most ambiguous. It could be either way.
Remember, the stock in question here is sales of the expansion pack, not the game itself. I still think the stock needs to come down regardless because even with sufficiently large numbers of people who will ever play WoW (15m, 20m whatever) I think you're asking a lot to have 12m of that number play the game long enough and hardcore enough to make it worth their while buying TWO expansions aimed at high level players.
It might be that we never properly resolve the China issue until we speak to a Chinese player but I think there's certainly sufficient doubt for me to price that into the stock.
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Just to clarify my position. My understanding is that gamers in China have to pay to set up an account for The9. They then buy time to play games via The9's network for games they have "activated".
It's the activation bit that is the most ambiguous. It could be either way.
Remember, the stock in question here is sales of the expansion pack, not the game itself. I still think the stock needs to come down regardless because even with sufficiently large numbers of people who will ever play WoW (15m, 20m whatever) I think you're asking a lot to have 12m of that number play the game long enough and hardcore enough to make it worth their while buying TWO expansions aimed at high level players.
It might be that we never properly resolve the China issue until we speak to a Chinese player but I think there's certainly sufficient doubt for me to price that into the stock.