To be honest, I want continue to build up my position, so I'd rather not elaborate on my opinion. I only mentioned it because I knew someone would ask as soon as it showed up in my profile.
Basically I believe both your estimates for current sales are far too low. The numbers that apujanata has chosen for his math are arbitrary and very low in my opinion. A few months after Burning Crusade was released in '07 more than 70% of subscribers in the West had already upgraded. What do you think the percentage is right now?
I also think you are both discounting future growth far too much. I believe that even though WoW is about 4 years old now, it isn't even half way through it's life cycle. You say WoW killers are on the horizon, Diablo, Starcraft, etc, and I say look at the last dominant MMORPG, Everquest. The most recent expansion for that came out last year in 2008, 9 years after the original. That's after WoW, Everquest II, and thousands of other games have come to the market. I think it's clear that WoW will blow past EQ in almost all respects and maybe could be on the market for at least a decade, possibly even more.
I'd rather not go into any more detail because I want to build my position, frankly I've already said too much. If you don't agree with me and you still believe your arguments are sound then feel free to sell more.
4
To be honest, I want continue to build up my position, so I'd rather not elaborate on my opinion. I only mentioned it because I knew someone would ask as soon as it showed up in my profile.
Basically I believe both your estimates for current sales are far too low. The numbers that apujanata has chosen for his math are arbitrary and very low in my opinion. A few months after Burning Crusade was released in '07 more than 70% of subscribers in the West had already upgraded. What do you think the percentage is right now?
I also think you are both discounting future growth far too much. I believe that even though WoW is about 4 years old now, it isn't even half way through it's life cycle. You say WoW killers are on the horizon, Diablo, Starcraft, etc, and I say look at the last dominant MMORPG, Everquest. The most recent expansion for that came out last year in 2008, 9 years after the original. That's after WoW, Everquest II, and thousands of other games have come to the market. I think it's clear that WoW will blow past EQ in almost all respects and maybe could be on the market for at least a decade, possibly even more.
I'd rather not go into any more detail because I want to build my position, frankly I've already said too much. If you don't agree with me and you still believe your arguments are sound then feel free to sell more.