After searching around (which I should have done in the first place, before I posted any analysis), you are correct that 70% plus of WoW players in West bought BC, so my analysis of BC conversion rate is too low, and I should just change the minimum parts.
About WoW potential, I am going to discuss this chart As you can see from this chart, which is talking about subscription, NOT sales #, most RPG (including Everquest), peaked out their subscription (and therefore, probably sales growth rate), in 5 years. Lineage : Mid 98 till 2004 : 6.5 years Lineage II : Mid 2003 till 2005 : 2.5 years (you can argue that WoW are the cause of the early peak-out of this game) Everquest : Early 1999 till 2002, and maintain the peak rate until sudden spike around end of 2004, before big decline in end of 2006. You can choose to say 4 year until peak, or 8 years until peak-out. If we take 8 years (best scenario) as peak out for WoW, and using their current growth rate of 10 million in 3 years (most optimistic scenario), we deduced that it will reach userbase of 27 Million (rounded up).
Using the above mentioned data, the new value is : max = 27 Million x 85% (I still have a hard time believing something close to 100% conversion rate for expansion pack) x 90% = 20.7 Million.
Since there are so many missing data and unclear issues with this stock (like whether we should count China players as sales or not), I decided to buy back my shorts (the cause of today's 10% price increase is me) and wait until more things have been cleared up before further investing from me.
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Thanks for responding to our question.
After searching around (which I should have done in the first place, before I posted any analysis), you are correct that 70% plus of WoW players in West bought BC, so my analysis of BC conversion rate is too low, and I should just change the minimum parts.
About WoW potential, I am going to discuss this chart
As you can see from this chart, which is talking about subscription, NOT sales #, most RPG (including Everquest), peaked out their subscription (and therefore, probably sales growth rate), in 5 years.
Lineage : Mid 98 till 2004 : 6.5 years
Lineage II : Mid 2003 till 2005 : 2.5 years (you can argue that WoW are the cause of the early peak-out of this game)
Everquest : Early 1999 till 2002, and maintain the peak rate until sudden spike around end of 2004, before big decline in end of 2006. You can choose to say 4 year until peak, or 8 years until peak-out.
If we take 8 years (best scenario) as peak out for WoW, and using their current growth rate of 10 million in 3 years (most optimistic scenario), we deduced that it will reach userbase of 27 Million (rounded up).
Using the above mentioned data, the new value is :
max = 27 Million x 85% (I still have a hard time believing something close to 100% conversion rate for expansion pack) x 90% = 20.7 Million.
Since there are so many missing data and unclear issues with this stock (like whether we should count China players as sales or not), I decided to buy back my shorts (the cause of today's 10% price increase is me) and wait until more things have been cleared up before further investing from me.