NPD is solid information on what has actually sold to consumers. Yes, it's extrapolated from hard data from a sample of stores but that is a very extensive sample. The industry itself uses NPD data and pays a lot of money for it. It's about as accurate as we're going to get in terms of actual sales.
Manufacturer numbers are invariably what they've shipped to retail, not what they've actually bought. Sony know how many copies they sold to GameStop. They don't know how many copies GameStop sold to customers. GameStop know that and feed that into NPD.
Anyway, the information I posted is not without caveats but it is a data point that paints a certain picture as to how certain software is doing. In the real world, companies stock values fluctuate all the time and almost always on "news". Even rumours about an earnings statement or just plain "uncertainty" are enough to move a stock.
TSE right now isn't exhibiting this behaviour. I've posted information about GTA:IV PS3, Dead Space & others recently and yet there is no signs that the market is incorporating the new information into it's predictions.
Which as you point out, turns the thing into a Keynesian beauty contest (see Wisdom of Crowds etc.) Such a criticism has been levelled at the exchange before. I don't agree it *has* to be that way but right now it *is* when the price doesn't reflect all of the information about a stock.
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NPD is solid information on what has actually sold to consumers. Yes, it's extrapolated from hard data from a sample of stores but that is a very extensive sample. The industry itself uses NPD data and pays a lot of money for it. It's about as accurate as we're going to get in terms of actual sales.
Manufacturer numbers are invariably what they've shipped to retail, not what they've actually bought. Sony know how many copies they sold to GameStop. They don't know how many copies GameStop sold to customers. GameStop know that and feed that into NPD.
Anyway, the information I posted is not without caveats but it is a data point that paints a certain picture as to how certain software is doing. In the real world, companies stock values fluctuate all the time and almost always on "news". Even rumours about an earnings statement or just plain "uncertainty" are enough to move a stock.
TSE right now isn't exhibiting this behaviour. I've posted information about GTA:IV PS3, Dead Space & others recently and yet there is no signs that the market is incorporating the new information into it's predictions.
Which as you point out, turns the thing into a Keynesian beauty contest (see Wisdom of Crowds etc.) Such a criticism has been levelled at the exchange before. I don't agree it *has* to be that way but right now it *is* when the price doesn't reflect all of the information about a stock.