@welshbloke, I'm not sure I see any theory in the argument as it seems to all be based on real world factors such as market size and current sales...unless your comment was intended as satire?
Why does Arbiter say only 3 years left? Because the Xbox 360 is expected to have a 5 year life cycle. 5-2 = 3. Do you expect more? In 3 years, I expect the Xbox 360 to be in its lame duck position due to anticipation of the next console generation. This means the peak will probably happen in 1.5-2 years.
The main argument is geographic demand. Look at the numbers. There is no demand for the Xbox 360 in Japan or the rest of Asia. Without that market, it is impossible to even sell 60 million units. There just aren't enough gamers!
It should be obvious that the PS3 will outsell the XBox 360, fanboyism aside. Why? If the Xbox 360 and PS3 sell the same number in North America, the PS3 will still far outsell the Xbox 360 in Asia and Europe. With that market disparity, the PS3 stock price should be at least 150% higher than the Xbox 360 stock price. I am thinking PS3 stock is already high, so the logical play is Xbox 360 is way too high.
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Why does Arbiter say only 3 years left? Because the Xbox 360 is expected to have a 5 year life cycle. 5-2 = 3. Do you expect more? In 3 years, I expect the Xbox 360 to be in its lame duck position due to anticipation of the next console generation. This means the peak will probably happen in 1.5-2 years.
The main argument is geographic demand. Look at the numbers. There is no demand for the Xbox 360 in Japan or the rest of Asia. Without that market, it is impossible to even sell 60 million units. There just aren't enough gamers!
It should be obvious that the PS3 will outsell the XBox 360, fanboyism aside. Why? If the Xbox 360 and PS3 sell the same number in North America, the PS3 will still far outsell the Xbox 360 in Asia and Europe. With that market disparity, the PS3 stock price should be at least 150% higher than the Xbox 360 stock price. I am thinking PS3 stock is already high, so the logical play is Xbox 360 is way too high.