Just a brief comment that though they are increasing the number of games it doesn't necessarily stop the 'bitching that there are no good games for the Wii"...a quantity increase doesn't mean a quality increase and we might get more shovelware and ports.
@zukaus, thanks for all the analysis on Nintendo. I did read it all and picked up some shares for myself. I agree there is still a lot of upside for NTDOY over this console generation as we gamers are forecasting the Wii and DS to dominate while Wall Street is still expecing the PS3 to dominate.
I'm not sure if you've read my previous posts on Nintendo (NTDOY) but not much has changed in my opinion. Although NTDOY is now about 10% more expensive since my last post, moving from 38 to 42, I believe it will continue to go higher.
I don't feel that the market has fully priced in the future success that should be coming Nintendo's way and as Laoldar has mentioned the Wii is only beginning to show up on the earnings and they should show great year on year numbers for at least the next couple quarters. Additionally, seven months out from launch, the Wii is still sold out worldwide and the biggest titles (Mario, Smash Brothers, Metroid) have yet to be released.
Many analysts, like the very vocal Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan, still feel that the PS3 will remain the dominant platform this generation or they believe that Sony and Microsoft will be on an even level with Nintendo. More and more, I am starting to believe that Nintendo will win this entire generation, selling the most units out of the three at the end of their lifecycles.
At the very least I expect Nintendo to continue to dominate for the rest of the year, selling the most home consoles systems, the most portable systems, and the most software units worldwide.
Of course things could always change and Nintendo could start to falter. Perhaps the PS3 will mount a sudden resurgence or maybe Nintendo's own software won't live up to expectations. If Nintendo shows signifigant weakness I will definitely consider selling my shares. But as a close industry watcher, an avid SimExchange user, and and a fan of video games in general, I feel that I will be able to see any change in the industry coming and I will be ahead of the market if a shift occurs.
For now though I think Nintendo will continue to outperform and I remain long shares of NTDOY.
Something to consider: Nintendo's new stock high is based off of sales of DS hardware and software. Sales fro the Wii have only started to show up in their earnings and their fiscal 07 numbers should blow their 06 numbers out of the water. Nintendo's consoles are particularly lucrative for their 1st party titles...the company made a lot of money being in 3rd place in the last gen and just imagine how much they can bring in now that they have the top selling home console as well.
Hey guys, I'm interested in hearing what your thoughts are on buying Nintendo (NTDOY) at these levels. The stock is hitting new highs, but with these recent slate of NPD numbers, it looks like Nintendo is going to be banking it this generation.
Both the PS3 and Xbox 360 unit sales for April were below expectations while both the Wii and DS have been selling very strongly. The fact that Nintendo is the biggest publisher for these platforms is a double plus.
The big question is whether all this is priced in already. The stock has risen quite a bit recently.
Thanks for the kind words NintendoFan. I did spend a lot of time writing up that last post about Nintendo (NTDOY), but it's not something I do on a regular basis. I don't have my own blog or homepage but I do enjoy talking about the stock market and about video games, which is probably part of the reason why I enjoy the SimExchange so much. If I have anything more to add about NTDOY or other video game stocks you'll likely find it in my posts here.
I will mention that aside from NTDOY there is only one other video game stock that I currently have a position in but it's much more speculative. It's in a Chinese company which operates online PC games in the Chinese market called The9 Limited (NCTY). They own the rights to World of Warcraft, Guild Wars, Hellgate: London, FIFA Online, and several other games. Although right now most of those games have not yet been released in the Chinese market and almost all of their current revenue comes from World of Warcraft. Look into them if you're interested and can handle the risky nature of the Chinese stocks.
Wow Zukaus that is a great post about the stock. I wish there was a way to keep great posts like that so they don't get buried after all the new posts. Something like that is relevant for quite a while. I know there's the valued comments in the community section but that is only there for like 3 days or something. Do you have a blog?
True, Twitch, tis pricey indeed, but look at it this way. It will keep you from being tempted to trade it. Every time I've tried to outsmart the market with my crazy trading, I've gotten wasted. This way, you can really treat it like an investment--you are part owner of the company. No need to sell these vg stocks anytime soon. We're at the beginning of the next gen cycle. I don't know about you, but I cannot time stocks very well. Buy and hold, Twitch. I think we'll be excited about what's next for video games stocks--full length movies. Think of it like a 401K plan and buy the dips, Twitch.
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Isn't that actually the BIGGEST problem? Porting a game that was not designed with motion controls in mind?
You end up with a game with gimmicky controls rather than one designed from the ground up to be controlled in that manner.