This week Madden 08 (Xbox 360) is at 143 on the VG Chartz 200 list, with 2500 copies sold. It would take 2 years at the current pace to reach 1.9 million units sold, and the new game comes out in a month and a half. There's 15-20 DKP of shorting in there, I think.
VG is showing sales in America on their World chart as 1.6 million but if you look at the American only chart you see 1.5 million and only approx 50k in sales for Feb. Assuming little to no further sales outside of the USA and eroding sales (no more than Feb sales of 58k) you would have maybe Mar-July before it peters out...so 5x50k is another 250k in sales on 1.65 (high end...doesn't match VG America chart) would give 1.9 million sold.
Seems properly priced if not even a little over priced.
For the record, VGCharts has this now at 1.65 million. So, with the last two months having approximately 300,000 sales, this game should be right on target if not undervalued. Depends on when Madden '08 comes out, I think.
I keep telling you guys you're all overlooking the most obvious. All the fuss over games that aren't even out yet...Madden NFL '07 (Xbox 360) has sold 1,380,500 copies following the December VGCharts numbers and its still only priced at 1.38 million (though if the price was supposed to forecast the current sales, this stock price is a perfect bullseye!)
Just saw from all the other posts that VGcharts has November numbers. Madden '07 for Xbox 360 is up 1,077,500 copies sold now in North America (ok no other region is going to buy an American football game). This stock is undervalued because December sales are certainly not going to be 0.
Madden is way undervalued. It's one of the biggest titles of the year and games like Fear, Marvel, and Splinter cell are currently valued the same? Not to mention the fact that Madden for Xbox 360 has ALREADY sold this amount.
In light of existing sales, this stock is undervalued at 72.52 DKP. This holiday season, the Xbox 360 version of Madden '07 will defiinitely add further to the current totals (which are indicated to be 700k already).
Equity analysts typically quote NPD data in their reports -- given madden being one of the bigger titles this year so far, they always indicate how its doing so far.
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