OK, but how/ (is?) that an argument for the 360 selling over 40 million units worldwide?
I'm not arguing that the 360 has no good games, we all know that just isn't the case, what Goblin and I are arguing is that at the most, this console will only move 40 million units total, and thats assuming that it remains on top in the US over the PS3.
This all hinges on two things a significant price drop and the other that the 360 lasts the course.
I personally see a significant price drop but MS are waiting for the re-engineered 65nm units. This price will hopefully be enough to make this unit close to a casual purchase.
The hardware will improve in specification during its life. I certainly see the day Microsoft drop the omg we are going to put a High Def player in our drivers after all oh and by the way Halo 4 will need you to buy the add on or the unit with it built in. I think the recent Hard drive upgrade proved that Microsoft are not just going to let this unit gather dust.
Now tell that if the price dropped sufficiently and the hardware improved during its life would that not be a reason for this unit to continue to sell well and sell well into the future. After all they have sold just short of 12 million at the higher price.
Have a look at the games library for the 360 you might be suprised at the games it has on offer. Also you might want to look at the PS3 library I think you are going to see a lot more similarities than you did on previous rounds.
In addition I think we are going to see China play a more important part in these number during the lifecycle for both units. Something we have not seen before and not one we can easily predict.
Again as Goblin Merchant stated, I want to emphasize the following:
An argument for 60 million console sales is going to require a pretty sound argument that the 360 will appeal outside of the US market, which so far it has only done in a limited fashion in Europe and not at all in Japan.
The US is certainly the largest market, which is why I think 40 million is more than generous for this console, but in order to reach 60 million sales they would have to oust the PS3 in Japan and make a better Racing Game than the PS3 since Racing is HUGE in Europe. From the looks of the upcoming racing titles I don't foresee that happening any time soon and you also have to take into account the Brand Loyalty issue, MS has to convince people to leave the familiarity of Gran Turismo and other known quantities and try out their system. All the PS3 has to do is convince their audience that their system is worth the cash to buy it, and with the success of BD so far I think they are making a very strong case for their system over the 360, especially with it only being 100 dollars more to go from the 360 Premium to the 60GB PS3.
Who ever said the PS3 was going to sell 60 million. IMO that stock is overpriced as well.
Starting next year as evidenced by E3 we're going to be seeing some major games hit the PS3.
With that said I still don't see anything to justify a 60 million total sales over say a 40 million total sales for the 360 in your arguments.
Also the lifespan of the 360 is not likely to be another 5 years, especially if they release the next gen system in 2009 as is rumored.
Technology progresses faster and faster and generations are growing shorter, we don't see an entire decade before a new generation any more, and now it's slowly getting to the point where 5 years is pushing it for a console.
Another factor to consider.
Only in the US are sales for 360 strong. The PS2 had strong sales in all countries. We know the PS3 is creaming the 360 in Australia and Japan, and it's also surpassing 360 sales in Europe.
On top of that Microsoft seems reluctant to do a price drop, the system has been out for over a year and a half and remains the same price that it was when it launched. By this point in the PS2's life it had already seen a $100 price drop and was starting to push 15 million sales, and gaining momentum. We aren't seeing an increased momentum from either the PS3 or the 360, we're seeing a decrease in sales month to month, worldwide.
I wouldn't compare the 360 to PS2 sales, but more likely to the oringinal XBox's sales, which still did 22 million in 4 years.
The only way the 360 will reach 60 million is if they delay the launch of their next system until about 2012, manage to stay up with the PS3 despite the hardware advantages of the PS3, AND the sales for the Wii drop off dramatically or Microsoft can convince people to buy both a Wii and a 360, which is going to be one tough sell, even with a lower price considering their game lineup is very "hardcore" centric and they lack many games outside of the RPG/FPS genres.
@welshbloke, you make a lot of good points, and I think the Xbox 360 has great appeal compared to the Wii and the PS3 in the US, but the system is really limited to that market. Asia is a huge market for video games and what is necessary to launch a console to the 60 million units level. The Xbox 360 makes no traction there whatsover.
I think those of us who are bearish on the Xbox 360 stock believe the console will continue to do well in the US market, but it will not in the world market. Without the world market, a console cannot make 60 million sales. The US gaming market alone just is not big enough.
I see no reason to doubt that this system has any less of a chance of hitting 60 million units sold over it lifetime than the Wii or the PS3.
The recent problems with hardware failures should not over the course of its life affect the sails dramatically. They have proactively taken action and as the newer units shipped are likely to suffer less and less hardware issues they will ultimately end up with a console with a long warranty and good reliability.
The Microsoft system still has the largest library of any of the next gen consoles and continues to grow at the same if not faster pace than the competition.
Rumours of new units are probably just that after all I would suggest the Wii is more at risk from becoming out of date. I suspect Microsoft will enhance the system over the next few years rather than going for a new complete model. I do not see the Xbox 360 struggling against the PS3 over the course of their lives as each has its own strengths and weaknesses none of which are commanding.
The PS2 is now climbing up to 120 millions sold the PS3 is chugging along the 360 is chugging a bit faster and the Wii is relatively bombing along but for my money you can forget the Wii as this is a tortoise and hare type race and it will be the 360 and the PS3 that will ultimately be crossing the winning lines the Wii just does not have the life expectancy to reach the PS2 numbers.
Once the PS3 and Xbox360 prices fall to the level of casual purchases we will see much higher volumes of sales. Game libraries increase models get repurchased second consoles get bought, this is not over not by a long shot. To say that a console that has already sold 10+ million cannot sell another 30 million over its life maybe seen as shortsighted. I am sure if I looked at the PS2 model its sales figures increased rather than declined.
So I'm going to chime in here as well. It looks like again and again MS is failing to make their system a large enough appeal to sell 60 million units.
I think it's generally agreed that this stock is overvalued.
Taking into account the star title for this game is Halo 3, and theres no way that title will meet it's value either, along with the woes hitting MS, including people in the upper management dropping shares, spending a billion to fix a problem they should have never had, a 33% failure rate for their system, and not meeting their goal for systems sold I do not think the 360 will even make 40 million in its lifetime, especially if they launch the next gen system in 2009 like they are rumored to be.
I would say this stock should be between 30-40 million max.
Xbox 360 Wireless Controllers available in festive new colors—Gamers can express their identity with new pink, dark blue and light blue (available in Europe and Japan) Xbox 360 Wireless Controllers. These new colors will be available in October. ERP $49.99 (U.S.).
Okay, I can somewhat agree with you about the validity of the importance of the PS2 -> PS3 brand loyalty - but the survey doesn't tell you anything about the intentions wrt 360 of non-Xbox owners - which is where the difference between Xbox and Xbox360 sales will come from.
Backwards compatibility doesn't mean much in the long term, which is when these tens of millions will be achieved - the PS2 had its amazing growth in its last 2-3 years, and hardly anyone played PS1 games then. I think in the first year or two when BC matters, the outrageous prices of the next-gen consoles will trump the BC card.
0
OK, but how/ (is?) that an argument for the 360 selling over 40 million units worldwide?
I'm not arguing that the 360 has no good games, we all know that just isn't the case, what Goblin and I are arguing is that at the most, this console will only move 40 million units total, and thats assuming that it remains on top in the US over the PS3.