Of course there is brand loyalty...even if just to enjoy backwards compatibility....
From a Nov 2006 study:
While the overall percentage of PlayStation 2 owners showing interest in a next-generation console today was lower than that of other console owners, their intensity of loyalty to Sony products was higher when considering a next generation purchase. The research showed 60% of those who own a PS2 and are considering a new console likely to buy a PS3, which exceeded the 45% of Xbox owners looking to buy an Xbox 360 and 46% of GameCube owners looking to buy a Wii.
On the Xbox site this evening they reveal the special edition Halo 3 Xbox. Interesting to note is that the console is only a 20GB version yet has HDMI.
Will this be announced for all consoles in the future?
This new Special Edition contains these components:
* Halo 3 Special Edition Console * Halo 3 Special Edition Wireless Controller * Halo 3 Special Edition 20GB Hard Drive * Halo 3 Special Edition Wired Headset * Halo 3 Special Edition Gamer Pics and Theme * Component HD AV Cable * Ethernet Cable * HDMI Port * Play & Charge Kit * Xbox LIVE Silver Membership * One-month Lbox LIVE Gold Membership
There is very little correlation between the PS2 sales and the PS3 sales, between the Xbox sales and the Xbox 360 sales. There are no "Playstation users" with tatooed barcodes on their heads who will automatically buy the next Playstation, and no "base". The PS2 had 100+ millions installed base because it was a) cheap and had b) tons of games, not because of the PS1 - none of which the PS3 can boast.
Disney to bring films from their library to live - includes Hunchback of Notre Dame, Atlantis, Hercules, The Emporer's New Groove, Armageddon, Sky High, The Waterboy, Bad Company, Unbreakable, The Brothers Grimm, Bringing Down the House, Coyote Ugly, Deja Vu, Primeval, The Queen, Venus, all in HD. All these available tonight to download.
http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/802/802988p1.html
A broader selection and perhaps some focus on X as a media center may help sales.
@Stitch, I think the forecast has something to do with the way the old market maker worked and the fact that noobies would always buy consoles when they joined. I think it is different now with the new market maker and could be worth shorting the consoles back to reality. The Xbox 360 forecast appears to be the most out of whack.
The Wii number is just huge, but as we know, supply is the constraint for that thing. Still, we are forecasting well beyond what anyone else in the industry is even guessing.
Even if the Xbox expanded its base by 100% you would sell 48 million units.
Even if PS lost 50% of its base you would sell 64 million units.
Wii...I don't understand Wii but even at a pace of 15 million per year do we expect it to sell for more than 5 years? (Given its power)..that would be 75 million.
I could say the same for both the PS3 and the Wii. The Wii is in my opinion unlikely to hit its ceiling figure based on the fact it will be replaced before it does and the hardware will age. The PS3 has yet to prove it can sell at all.
In my opinion all the next gen stock is overpriced, but if the other 2 consoles are expected to sell those numbers then I see no reason for the Xbox to not also sell well.
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Of course there is brand loyalty...even if just to enjoy backwards compatibility....
From a Nov 2006 study:
While the overall percentage of PlayStation 2 owners showing interest in a next-generation console today was lower than that of other console owners, their intensity of loyalty to Sony products was higher when considering a next generation purchase. The research showed 60% of those who own a PS2 and are considering a new console likely to buy a PS3, which exceeded the 45% of Xbox owners looking to buy an Xbox 360 and 46% of GameCube owners looking to buy a Wii.
http://www.abiresearch.com/abiprdisplay.jsp?pressid=764