@welshbloke, also in the current generation starting prices were considerably higher so that will take longer to cover. I see the same kind of slowing down i the PC market too: less frequent video card releases, processing power matters less as more people realize that their lightweight laptop is still just as good to browse the internet and Office... And with that more companies seek ways to make more money from product improvements instead of having product improvements just reflect hardware improvements.
I had not read your response but found I had already responded in almost the same vain in regard to another article. I too believe the technology is just not going to see the big enough change needed to bring up new investment. I also do not see either Next Gen console actually struggling to sell. With the high starting prices of these consoles it is entirely possible that we have the opportunity for them to grow at an even faster pace, coupled with the uptake of HD equipment this could be seen as only the beginning.
Antoher example of rengineering for the better may be Windows 7 which apparently is going to be capable of running on machines with a lower spec than Vista. That will be a refreshing change, of course it will probably never happen.
@welshbloke, One of my main reasons for thinking that ps3 will be kept for many years is simply money related: it doesn't make sense to me that you spend so much money in research and lose in production just to then cancel it out without leaving it to become a standard and become profitable... but today I remembered a line of thinking I used to had that I think will apply more as time goes on:
I didn't have to buy a new tv to watch Lord of the Rings or Star Wars. It didnt' matter the fact that they were high value, expensive productions with tons of special effects: it was just about the content, not the medium over which it's being transmitted. I believe this is an ideal. One for which games are trying too. Games have been much more tied into the technology because of their different nature, but I believe with time, someday this will tend to slow down. I believe it's slowed down in the past too: up to now every couple of years the growth was huuuge, from big blocky pixels to animations, from animations to rough 3d, from rough 3d where you could count the polygons to high poly meshes with bumps ... I and i believe the slowdown continues. We won't go 4d, and while it will be superb when realistic materials are simulated, and true raytracing-like light propagation happens, these things are more on teh lines of refining, not as much revolutionizing the game world. It was a big move from 2d side view to 3rd person view... but where can you go further from there except refining. Do I think we're done evolving technology? Not by far. One of my most anticipated features, realistic lightcasting & bouncing is yet just a ghost of what it will be... BUT there is a LOT that can be done with what we have already. Companies are starting to realize more and more that even with simple basic hardwares you can do great games (casual games, low requirements for hugely successful games like Sims, World of Warcraft...) that will bring in revenue, and that even non cutting edge devices like the Wii can bring in money with the righ tapproach and money. I believe there will be little incentive for the masses to quickly move on to the next generation. Profitability is important, and for that exploiting your hardware is important. And this hardware is quite powerful: we're reaching points where games are starting to stream off discs with no 'levels'. Now the art creation departments need time to catch up. Most importantly I believe now it will take quite a couple of years for the montion capture technology & infrastructure to become truly cheap and widespread in the industry: as that happens there's less need for next-next graphics because it's easier to create content faster. Sure, there will always be graphics nuts such as myself... but the differences will be too small to justify mass movement to another platform anytime soon IMO.
Obviously when expecting a 8+ year lifecycle for ps3 I'm not saying ps4 will be launched in 2015, it will, I believe, coexist with ps3 much earlier, but my point is that as time moves on hardware should become more stable and consumers I believe will end up paying less and less for hardware and increasingly only for content. So should the ps4 be released sooner I would still expect the ps3 to get support, actually even more than the ps2 is getting now because if my theory about this ideal path with the movie example should be true then the games will come out on both platforms, except one being the more budget experience one the higher quality one, but with less titles simply dropped from the lower platform like they are now because the difference might not be in "the ps3 can't do this game" like it is with some ps2 games now, just "on ps3 there will be less polygons & details and we won't have skin shaders & light bouncing".
I think the problem here is you do not believe the 360 and PS3 consoles will have a 7+ year life. If you believed in a longer lifespan then these forecasts do not appear bullish.
@MasterTrader, my explanation is that it's because xbox360 has been high due to the solid holiday lineup but now with no more releases to come it's slowly going lower while the ps3 I think is growing due to the constant 'ps3 is doing good' news (which many of them seem to be the same news item retold imho)
I think that amony many gamers there has always been the thought that "oh, that Wii thing won't last...people will move to the PS3 soon!"...regardless of waht the sales numbers have shown over the past year, those people are quick to jump on any speculation that it's happening.
Personally, I think both the 360 and PS3 console stocks are overpriced. Does the 360 have any other major games announced that will boost their sales? People should be predicted this stock based on sales from the last two years, but instead they're still anticipating a sales spike. The PS3 is similar, but still holds the promise of big exclusives in 2008/2009. However, I think that their big-name games (MGS, GT, FF, etc) still won't move enough units to push it over 50 million.
The spread between the PS3 stock and Xbox 360 stock here are narrowing. Is this confirming the speculation that the PS3 may still overtake the other consoles, or is the market just reflecting the commentary?
I will try to find financial reports (or any press releases) released by Microsoft with Xbox and Xbox360 shipment numbers for people who don't trust vgchartz (though I would imagine for such data they just take it directly from the reports).
Good analysis. I agree that the Xbox360 just is not poised to dominate any market like the PS2 did (I think only the DS has the chance to accomplish such a feat, the Wii has always seemed to me to be short sighted and while many think that graphics are superficial, two years from now when the Wii is putting out last gen graphics and current gen graphics are near photo/video realistic, people will start to notice and think twice about getting a console that seems to have one step in the future and one step in the past).
The PS3 might actually end up doing what Sony has been claiming all along. For me this seems like the only console poised to be around (and supported) for a long time. The Xbox360 seems like it will get dropped much like the Xbox was (even if Microsoft claims otherwise, though I hope this is not the case). I know many people who are waiting for the price to drop on the PS3, more good games to come out and the price of the better games to drop in order to pick a PS3 up. It is quite possible that by 2013 that the PS3 could have become the next PS2, maybe selling less but still an enormous success.
One reason for this is I am expecting for Sony to start looking at the Chinese market. Consumption there is astronomical and if this market can be tapped into wisely, Sony could benefit greatly (I would assume it would be harder to pirate things for the PS3 than older consoles). Pirating would be a great obstacle to overcome but as China's populous grows more wealthy, this will decline (though in South Korea pirating PC games is normal even for the rich, so maybe not). In any event, it is possible that all the consoles could end up getting a serious boost if several economies pick up (especially India and China, with nearly eight times as many people as America) and their interest in video games (buying them) also picks up.
But in any event, 100 million for the Xbox360 seems a bit far fetched, it is already two years into its lifespan and hasn't crossed the 20 million mark yet.
1