but the wii isnt built towards the hardcore market, its emphasis is on family and casual gamers. if the recession is to have a major impact on the games industry then on nintendo is where it will strike hardest especially the wii. its price point just isnt low enough yet, maybe if the recession holds off for another 2-3 years and the wii has had a chance to drop in price it could get away with it but i dont see it happening personally.
i think 126mil is far too optimistic even if there isnt a recession anyway. i cant see why people would buy at 126mil, where can the stock go? its not going to go up a great deal 5-10% at the most as its not going above 140mil is it, and could drop 15-20% back to 100-110 quite easily.
@sagexsdx, Brilliant link! It touches on some of the reasoning for which while I love TSE I don't agree with it's market forecast in the console wars. Thanks for pointing it out.
My question is this though: if this is true, and I seem to experience what you're saying: I used to find stocks worth buying into, feeling, like you said, proud I'm supporting something undervalued/great, now more and more often those stocks seem overvalued to me and I should be shorting, but then again shorting doesn't seem to be a very profitable thing at least in some lifetime stocks because of taking many weeks/months for a specific data to emerge oor hype to die out, then if this is all true, then this should result in many of the more veteran TSE traders moving into monthly/npd stocks... which indeed I've noticed, I myself have tried to fight this and stick to lifetime but seeing how for weeks at a time huge chunks of my cash were eaten up by a non-moving lifetime, it kinda results in a chiken & egg cyclic situation where with the big cash holders movign into shorter term stuff there's no more wise traders to regulate the long term lifetime stocks.
However when people from the outside (and inside too) look at TSE often they look for console war data, thus looking at the lifetime stocks... meaning that it's going to go more and more out of control (until a certain day when a big publisher just dishes out a fixed number when there's a huge market adjustment - but then it's pure data, no more use for TSE as a future market estimation tool if the estimation has been wildly out of control up to that point).
anyway i guess that really is one of the highlighted points of how wisdom of crowds can fail eh, that a small handful of people can influence the rest of the crowd.
I think that it may be a factor of "I KNOW this game will sell X million copies, so I'll keep it there"...or simple fanboyism. If they have enough spare cash to reverse the positions I took, then they already have a LOT of DKP.
Also, the prices don't just stay static...they slowly creep up. My theory is that some are preventing the prices from decreasing while allowing them to slowly trend upwards (perhaps due to new players).
My follow up question to your analysis would be this: What is their motivation?
I would say the majority of people on TSE are trying to increase our DKP, perhaps raise our ranks.
By players doing this equilibrium thing you speak of, what are they gaining?
If they've taken a position on the stock early on when it was low, then they're essentially cutting their percentage gain by buying in at higher prices.
On the other hand, if they are trying to restore the price to what they jumped in at, eventually aren't they going to lose everything if the stock is indeed overvalued? I mean at some point aren't people going to have to give up?
Again, (disclaimer disclaimer) I know nothing. Perhaps it's a little bit of both your theory and mine. I know for a fact that when I started TSE a while back, I didn't really know the meaning of this assigned value I was buying into.
I wouldn't blame new players. Some established players are forcing some games to remain at an equilibrium. Yesterday I moved about four stocks downwards to test this...and the movements were quite large so no one player could reverse them. Later that afternoon all of the stocks had returned to almost the exact price they were in the morning. It would take millions of DKP to do so and it occured quite quickly.
Someone (or a couple of players) with a very large account wanted these prices to stay exactly where they were. If this is happening on a large scale (some players babysitting the prices of certain stocks), it's no wonder that so many appear overpriced but cannot be lowered.
i think - and this isn't specific to the wii - that as of late there have been a lot of new members to this community. and as such, i think there is a lack of understanding of what exactly these values are to represent for these people. i am currently shorting a lot of stock and i keep seeing the stock go higher and higher way past what estimates should be. most likely people are buying in because they think it's a cool game/console and they think it's cool to own a "part" of it.
i know i know... the whole wisdom of crowds thing. but i think in the case of TSE, there is also a bit of education/knowledge you need to have about markets . the learning curve is much higher than that of youtube or digg.
of course i could be wrong in all of my statements too and just pulled an "assume" (because we all know what happens when we assume)
I don't get why lifetime stock for Wii is so high. Oblviously take my comments with many grains of salt as I'm shorting this, but still wondering how the people bullish are thinking: Right now it's 128 mil estimated here. Out of this we've got 20m according to vgc up to now, EA predicts 12-14m for 2008, even if Wii kept up 15m/year (I personally think it's goign to drop very hard in <4 years), that would mean it would have to sell like this up to 2015!!! Can you honestly think that by then Sony/MS won't figure anything out to capture this casual audience both in content & price? I'm not even sure ps2 reached these numbers and it was a completelly dominating console, with no competitors, while now we have at least 3 each holding it's own. That's my resoning at least. I would like to read yours. How many mil do you see it selling for 2008, 2009, 2014?
@vGInfidel, I do not believe if we see a recession this year in the U.S. market or in other global markets that we will see negative growth in the videogame industry because of the fact that the industry is growing at a quicker pace than consumer spending is going down and because the core of the industry is centralized around hardcore gamers that will still continue to buy videogame products because they are hardcore gamers. Also, though the Wii has less hardcore gamers than the 360 or PS3, the Wii does have the incredible demand, hype factor, and the lower price point to keep its sells up on both the hardware and software sides.
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but the wii isnt built towards the hardcore market, its emphasis is on family and casual gamers. if the recession is to have a major impact on the games industry then on nintendo is where it will strike hardest especially the wii. its price point just isnt low enough yet, maybe if the recession holds off for another 2-3 years and the wii has had a chance to drop in price it could get away with it but i dont see it happening personally.
i think 126mil is far too optimistic even if there isnt a recession anyway. i cant see why people would buy at 126mil, where can the stock go? its not going to go up a great deal 5-10% at the most as its not going above 140mil is it, and could drop 15-20% back to 100-110 quite easily.