Last year the channel was sucked dry by Christmas, and January was by-far the lowest month of the year; lower than any other month by more than 150K. Is there reason to think things will be so different this year?
@deftangel, Cut off limit for LTD Top 10 and LTD Top 25 since April 08 is : LTD 10 LTD 25 Since April --- 1.4413 ----- 1.3689 Since Aug ----- 1.1885 ----- 1.1323 Since Oct ----- 1.1568 ----- 1.0716
second column is increase of Dec 31 for LTD Top 10, while the third column is for LTD Top 25.
As you can see, LTD Top 10 increase is slightly bigger than Top 25. In April - Dec, Top 10 cut-off increased 44.13%, while Top 25 increase 35.89%.
In Oct - Dec, Top 10 increased 15.69%, while Top 25 only 7.17%. In other words, you don't have to increase as much as Top 10, but you do have to increase better than Top 25. If your networth since end of April didn't increase by 37%+, you would get farther and farther behind.
And you don't have to trade in futures to get those big gain. It is possible to break Top 10 just from Trading GLS. Just ask soupspup. I think his profit mostly came from GLS trading, not future trading.
No of course that's not the only way but an NPD future is probably the way to do it. I can only compare my rate of progress against the top 10 and in recent months there's been a pretty dramatic increase in the rate their network has been increasing.
So I made a reasonable assumption same is true of top 25.
@deftangel, "At any rate, in order to break top 25 I probably need to win a bigish bet against players with higher networth than me"
This statement is not true, in my case. I break into Top 25 by getting MORE profit than other player, except zukaus (who can win against him in actual profit ?)
You are now rank 33 with 25 Million Networth. It took me 1.5 month, since April 1 till May 15, to rise from rank 37 (13 Million Networth) to rank 22 (23 Million Networth). The big during that period for me is : FFCC: Ring of Fates (1.1 Million profit) Ninja Gaiden Apr 08 (1.1 Million profit) PS3 Apr 08 (1.1 Million profit)
Big lost : CC:FF7 Mar 08 (650K loss)
There are lost of other profits, but they are smaller, and not worth mentioning.
In your case, it would take longer to break Top 25 since there are more people with fast networth increase, like soupsoup. But all you have to do is creating bigger profit than other, NOT winning bet against higher networth player.
Wish you luck in your Wii Dec 08 gamble. I have small short position in it, so small it didn't show up in my public profile. So if you win, I also win (big win vs. small win).
I have found some margin so I just took those two buy offers. It's a bit more risky but what the hell, apujanta's calculation of my risk means I am less worried. What's a couple of million :D
There are 5 players with greater networth long on Wii / Dec08 though of course we've no idea when they got involved, could easily be before Nov NPD.
@deftangel, I invested a lot of short into Dec future, and now are out of margin. I hope that you and I are both correct in our estimate of 1.5 - 2 M.
I wonder who is it that put up those buy offer at 2.3 Million price point. I think I bought 3 - 4 Million DKP at that price point. Looks like it is a high networth player.
Hurting grandmother's feeling is not a good attitude, especially when you are 26 years old. I would suggest that his girlfriend should leave him, since it (the violence) could get even worse after marriage.
@deftangel, So you are not the one driving down the price yesterday. I cashed out my long at 2.74M price point, so your short and my cash-out are almost at the same price. :)
I think the meltdown for 1.5 - 2 Million will be way more "crazy" compared to 2.5 - 3 Million. I mean, 2.5 - 3 Million is the conventional wisdom, so reaching that status is "normal" for most people. :) Shorting at 2.7 and result at 3 Million means only 10% loss, so it is no big deal, IMO :).
35% (limit) x 10% (loss) x 25 Million (your networth) = 700K DKP loss.
If the Dec 08 # is 4 Million (very unlikely IMO), then your loss will be massive :(
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