@welshbloke, I have low confidence on Pachter's ability to predict console release. He might be good for forecasting game company's financial performance, he might be average on forecasting H/W # for NPD, but I wouldn't do ANY investment based on his prediction on console release, especially Wii HD release on 2011, based on "overcome the image it's cultivated as a console for parents and children, said the analyst" logic.
I mean, we all know the reason of Wii's success, and WHY would Nintendo drop the reason of it's success and go the X360 and PS3 route, which have been proven to be less successful ? Doesn't make sense.
With Pachter wading in on the Wii HD and predicting 2011 this would make the current 165 million on the extreme high range. Which puts us back to something more like 120/130.
Maybe we should look at year 5 for the Wii HD intro and how that will affect GLS as posted by apujanata
Wii sales is 30 Million (IIRC) in its first 2 years, WW. Let's say that : Year 3 = 28 Million Year 4 = 24 Million Year 5 = 20 Million Year 6 = 15 Million (Wii 2 released on market) Year 7 = 9 Million Year 8 = 5 Million.
We got 30 Million (actual) + 101 Million prediction = 131 Million.
Oh well, the Wii launched in begin of december for me (European) so another two month to go in my head, but year, lets say 6 weeks ;)
In June (last known number) there where nearly 30 million shipped (according to Nintendo) and if you do a little math, they should have about 5-10 Million units stockpiled, for christmas. that comes in to the 2.4 Million/Month production they should have. The very least shipped number at end of the (calendar) year is 45 Million units. That is in 2 years and give it a month and a half ;)
And do not forget, it is still sold out in America. No price drop (in 2 years!) no colors, no bundles not ONE thing Sony and MS is doing constantly to drive sales. And do not forget that the "leading" console normally sell way longer than 2 years after the next consoles are released. Look at the PS2, still selling :)
What would give me worry is the economic downturn. At least this month. The chaos in America could really turn markets. I read reports that the car market overall is down 30% YoY in America in September. That is a lot. I think NPD will be interesting this month ;)
@Just_Ben, 1. I don't like referring to VGC data (you know the reason) 2. VGC data already incorporate some of the September data (up to Sep 20, the last time I check). Therefore, it is not really 32 million for 1 year and 10 months, it is more like 1 year and 11 months. 3. IF Wii manage to get 33 or 34 million on it's 2nd anniversary (24 full months), you can just reduce the 28 Million for the 3rd year to 24 - 25 Million (assume that there are 3 million unit of Wii available on shelf), or just increase the 131 Million I do with 135 - 136 Million. The point still stand that 170 Million GLS is on the high end (optimistic) of the prediction range.
@welshbloke, Don't forget, there is always a first time for everything (regarding Wii's life expentacy against competition compared to PS2's). When there are more competition (see GBA vs DS+PSP), the total market grow. I wouldn't be surprised IF the console total market also grow at the same time (Wii+PS3+X360 bigger than PS2+GC+XBOX).
I am more inclined to go with the numbers you presented here. I think the PS2 which lets face it had the market pretty much all to itself did prove to sell well. The current market has 3 successful models and I do not see the Wii sustaining the demand beyond year 5.
I think if I was honest I could see the Wii fizzle out around 120. This only because the Wii is still holding true and dumbfounding the fad critics.
@welshbloke, Wii sales is 30 Million (IIRC) in its first 2 years, WW. Let's say that : Year 3 = 28 Million Year 4 = 24 Million Year 5 = 20 Million Year 6 = 15 Million (Wii 2 released on market) Year 7 = 9 Million Year 8 = 5 Million.
We got 30 Million (actual) + 101 Million prediction = 131 Million.
Note : the 8 years scenario was proven by PS2. If we take 10 years scenario, with less drop in the sales#, then it could reach 160 Million or more.
Nintendo announced a production of 2.4 million in the summer. So most likely since August. They selling about the half/month right now, at least something in that department.
Not disputing the fact that the current Wii is selling well I am disputing is that the Wii HD will be considered in the numbers in the same way I would dispute the DSi should be considered the same as the DS if that is the 3rd DS revision you refer.
The last production statement made from Nintendo I found was 1.8 per month which as that was a while ago is very likely to be have risen to 2.3 per month now as Just_Ben has stated. I just very much doubt that they will sill be making them at this level for a further 5 years for this revision of the product at least.
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I have low confidence on Pachter's ability to predict console release. He might be good for forecasting game company's financial performance, he might be average on forecasting H/W # for NPD, but I wouldn't do ANY investment based on his prediction on console release, especially Wii HD release on 2011, based on "overcome the image it's cultivated as a console for parents and children, said the analyst" logic.
I mean, we all know the reason of Wii's success, and WHY would Nintendo drop the reason of it's success and go the X360 and PS3 route, which have been proven to be less successful ? Doesn't make sense.