@JoshuaJSlone, I think there is also a factor of "all Wii backlog / pent-up demand fully satisfied by end of May", so June is the first month of "Wii readily available since launch", and the # of June 2008 reflect the demand of June, not "demand of June + pent-up / backlog demand of Wii).
That is a logical explanation why June could drop 20%+.
I notice that currently the June forecast is slightly lower than April and May's. I know there's not a Mario Kart or Wii Fit-sized game coming that month, but it's still 5 weeks versus their 4. And unless they for some reason need an extra big boost for Japan/Europe or their production decreases rather than increases, I don't see a need for the sales rate per-week to decrease by more than 20% for June.
@apujanata, You didn't really answer my point / question : "do you have any reason why you think this (Japan portion shifted to US) will not happen ? If you do, what is the cause ?" I meant my answer to be that if it's happening now, it's already been happening for some time.
However, yeah, the more reports there are of large supply, the more I doubt my initial position.
@Just_Ben, I doubt that demand will be met by May for the Wii. I haven't seen one in the "wild" around my parts since at least last year. Nintendo is putting the marketing machine behind Wii Fit and is going to be using that title and Wii Sports to attract casual or mainstream buyers. They already have print ads, online ads, and are already being featured on talk shows like GMA. Even if demand were to decrease a bit before May, Nintendo will be able to increase demand to at the least equal supply. I believe Wii supply in the U.S. will not catch up to demand until, at the earliest, the summer.
@Just_Ben, Then it depend on the demand. It is even possible to have <600K / month sales for Wii in US. However, I think Wii Fit will ensure that demand > supply.
How is your girlfriend response to the Wii Fit you purchased ? Did she like it ?
@JoshuaJSlone, You didn't really answer my point / question : "do you have any reason why you think this (Japan portion shifted to US) will not happen ? If you do, what is the cause ?"
I know that Japan was not Wii-supply-constrained. I do follow up those M-create H/W data, even though I didn't post there as often as I used to do.
If nothing big happen on week 21 - 27, April will see "only" 188K sold Wii. If May 2008 see 300K - 400K Wii sold, that mean there are 1.4 - 1.5 Million Wii unit available for Europe + NA in May, and 1.6 Million available for April. I still believe that it is a big possibility that US will get 650K - 700K unit shipped to them in April.
Remember the Toy R Us "biggest shipment of Wii" article ? In fact, if you go to "that forum" and check the "weekly update" topic, you will see an even more frightening #, which made my 650-700K for April estimate seem "pessimistic/downright insulting to Nintendo".
In short, I WOULD definitely not going to underestimate (or short) Wii's April #. Wii's May and June #, that is a different story. If after all this info you still think you want to short April Wii, then please do it. We will see who is right, you or me.
@apujanata, Japan hasn't really been Wii-supply-constrained for the better part of a year. It doesn't seem to me like there'd be much extra boost from shifting some units a week [i]now[/i] that they wouldn't already have been doing. To go from ~720K in a 5-week month to doing 700K in a 4-week month would take an additional 30K/week.
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I think there is also a factor of "all Wii backlog / pent-up demand fully satisfied by end of May", so June is the first month of "Wii readily available since launch", and the # of June 2008 reflect the demand of June, not "demand of June + pent-up / backlog demand of Wii).
That is a logical explanation why June could drop 20%+.