The price of GLS stock is even crazier (IMO). 1.9 Million WW for X360 ? While X360 strongest country is US and UK (but not other Europe country) ? I am a little bit sleepy now, so I will leave the explanation of why 1.9 Million is reasonable to those people who drove up the price from 1.7 to 1.9 in the last two days.
For those who are curious, DMC3 sales # in March 2005 NPD is < 270K, and that is on PS2, whose US LTD at that moment is around 27 Million.
How can anyone expect DMC4, on X360 whose US LTD at this moment is only 9 Million, to beat DMC3 first month # on PS2, the most successful console in US for all time ?
Your reasoning is correct. However, based on DMC3 first month performance in March 2005, on the PS2, I severely doubt that the X360 version can do 500K in first month.
Almost all high profile AAA games sold extremely well in their first months on X360. I think this game will sell ~ 500k in Feb.
Also it will release on Feb. 5th so it will have nearly a full month of availability in the Feb. NPD. At the current price, this is a really good investment IMO.
Either this stock is severely under priced right now, or the PS3 version is over priced. With the difference in instal bases between the two consoles it would be expected that the 360 version should have significantly higher sell through than the PS3 version. I understand that these are based on lifetime sales, However, it can't be argued that initial sales volume is an indicator of how well a title will sell over time. The more time that pases after a release generally the more dust that piles up on it and the less copies are sold, so expected initial sales volume should be an important factor when buying stock. That being said, whether the 360 version is on it's mark and the PS3 version is over valued or the opposite is true, something here doesn't add up.
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