Its been a couple more weeks and sales continue to drop for this title. It is now at 88th place according to VGChartz in Japan, with a tital of 52DKP worth of sales so far.
Based off of the performance of similar titles, I don't think we can expect more than MAYBE an extra 50% in sales in the PAL and US sales combined over what has been done in Japan.
Factoring in an assumed sales of 750k to the 520k done so far we get a total of 127dkp in combined sales based on VGChartz data.
Even factoring in an extra 20% for margin for error we get a range of 100dkp-150dkp.
Currently this stock is valued at 167dkp, it could use some additional shorting.
This stock should be valued at between 150-125DKP at the most, it is Overvalued
It's just so happened that both FFXII:RW and FFT:tLW dropped off the [url=http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=168959]Media Create's top 50 chart in the same week. This marks the end of the official chart tracking in Japan. VGC seems to be the only source left for tracking these two games.
The only way this game will reach its current price is if this game takes off in US and Europe. Both markets have to sell above (or close to) its Japanese counterpart. Given previous records of FF, I'd say US might meet that target while Europe will fall short.
More games released around the same time has more legs than this unfortunately (most noticable Momotarou Dentetsu DS: Tokyo & Japan that was released on the same date. That game was 22nd this week)
I won't be surprised if I don't see this game in the Media Create top 50 next week.
Japanese total so far is 486,713 according to Famitsu via gamefront.de. I have serious doubts whether NA and PAL regions can pull ~1.5 million copies to reach the predicted price of this stock.
Another point about this game is that it is a sequel (of sort). I think most of it would be sold to those who already have FFXII on PS2. Sure, few people will pick up this game even though they have never played FFXII before, but they are in the minority.
If we look at FFX and FFX-2, it's a similar situation, except for one major difference, X and X-2 are both on the PS2. Gamers didn't need to buy a new console to play X-2. Whereas for RW, gamers either already have a DS, or they will have to buy/rent/steal a DS to play.
So I'd say 95% of the worldwide sales will be sold to people who:
1) have played FFXII, and 2) have or have access to a DS, and 3) have the desire to buy this game.
2
usually you don't see a whole lot of trading until phase 2 hits.