I was not using them (regarding Gears of War and Halo) as examples of competition, but rather games that have risen above the crowd, they are not just 'good', and have accordingly sold many millions of copies.
Looking at other forums (such as here) that post by the moderator seems credible (supposedly the game sold more in Europe than America). But even so, that would be on a console that had sold around 80 million by the game's release. Attachment rate wise it was at around 2.5%. With the current prediction of lifetime sales of the PS3 at around 51 million that would give it 1.275 million copies sold, but that would be if the game was released near the end of the PS3's lifetime, not near the beginning.
From this I still think the game should be in the 1.2-1.4million (120-140DKP) range.
I'm out of this stock now but I remind you that although there are indications that KZ sold less than a million on the PS2 their is a developer for Guerilla Games that claims multiple millions sold:
As for Gears and Halo....unless you are a multi console owner why would a PS3 owner care about those games as comparisons...they would be looking at Haze (non exlcusive) and perhaps a Resistance 2 as competition no? (I'm thinking about myself here...as a Sony console owner I don't make my purchase decisions on what game is available on Wii or X...I look at the games available to me on PS)
Even if this game turns out to be good (like above 80% average review rating), I still don't think it will be able to hit 1.6 million, I doubt the PS3 will have an unexpected increase in sales per month in the next 6-9 months (holiday season spike is expected and taken into account), as I expect this game to come out around a year or so from now. Also, I think that this genre has become so competitive that you have to be better than good (like Halo or Gears of War level) in order to become very successful in it (sales wise). I still think a better range for this game is 1.2-1.4million (120-140DKP).
@Gaara42, I'm not saying its not going to be released, all I'm saying is that is does not have a release date. If it doesn't have a release date we don't have an idea of what the PS3 userbase will be at the time of this games release.
This game will more likely than not get released (Sony has hyped it to much only to cancel the project). From that we can make predictions as to how well it will sell based off of the information we have so far concerning the game's quality, marketability, sale numbers of other games in its genre and the sales numbers of the platform it will be launched on. As time goes on we will have more data on how games like Killzone sell on the PS3 and we can use these as indications of how well this title will sell. How far the release of a game is should not matter, as the main point of this exchange (before the futures) help a company gauge how well the crowd thinks a game will sell over its lifetime in advanced of the game's release (and afterwards if conditions change).
@Gaara42, Yes the point of the SE is to make predictions based on how a game will sell before it is released. However, this game has no release date yet so that makes it very difficult to pin down what it should be at. I thought people & Kultofcows said that games without release dates should no longer get put on the SE until they do get one. This game got on the SE before that mindframe/policy. Perhaps I was a little strict in my less statement. While I think predictions can be made, having no release date will make it much harder to make accurate predictions for KZ2.
@Gaara42, yes I don't know why Joe80 is saying that predictions can't be made for a game w/o a release date...since that is what we're doing with most of the stocks here.
I think the biggest factor here is the reviews. The first Killzone was heavily marketed but received very mediocre at best reviews and sales were rather weak (relative to the amount of buzz the game got). If the game itself isn't good, the buzz from marketing isn't going to carry this game.
Given how Sony's PS3 games have been delivering, such as Lair, I would not be surprised if this was another high profile flop. I would say the stock is too high given the risk of the game quality not delivering. It would be interesting to have a Metacritic future listed for this one just to see what people are expecting.
Joe80, isn't the point of this site to make predictions about how well a game will sell even before it is released? I think predictions for this game can be made and they are by people buying and selling shares, not just by the people who post comments.
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I was not using them (regarding Gears of War and Halo) as examples of competition, but rather games that have risen above the crowd, they are not just 'good', and have accordingly sold many millions of copies.
Looking at other forums (such as here) that post by the moderator seems credible (supposedly the game sold more in Europe than America). But even so, that would be on a console that had sold around 80 million by the game's release. Attachment rate wise it was at around 2.5%. With the current prediction of lifetime sales of the PS3 at around 51 million that would give it 1.275 million copies sold, but that would be if the game was released near the end of the PS3's lifetime, not near the beginning.
From this I still think the game should be in the 1.2-1.4million (120-140DKP) range.