Just to note, VGChartz has both Burnout Paradise titles tracking at just under 750,000 units each. This title has been around for a while now and I think forecasts above 1 million units are a bit bullish at this point.
exactly what i was thinking, why would anyone still be pumping dkp into it? the sales figures clearly show that it will not achieve 1.5million and yet it is still being brought, oh well ill just take them for more dkp if they're that desperate to give it away.
exactly why ive just shorted them both, current price (even with my drop) puts it at 2.7million combined. Now if its only sold 1million in its first 3months or so since release to gain another 170% of that would mean its got just about the longest legs ive ever seen. the only titles i feel are capable of getting anywhere near this figure are WoW, GTA and Nintendo first party. I dont see how a run of the mill sandbox racer is going to achieve it and i think combined should be closer to 1.5 at best, which is the current price of the 360 alone.
My 2 Million profit consist of one time bonus of community level 6 : 1.5 Million bonus. If those 2 Million profit all come from pure trading, it is better (IMO).
By the time I had money left and saw a 50% return (I think it would do under 1 Million). Looking at past Burnout Sales the highest where 2 Million on the PS2. Since this one is splitted between 360 and PS3 and Racing Titles underperform on 360 I figured that this is a save bet, and hoped the return would come after first NPD numbers are on. Thats why I ask for an opinion. I wanted to see if I am so much wrong.
On the GLS thing: I have the plan to keep 2/3 of my money in futures and 1/3 in GLS. I thought by hitting the 20 Million I had to do more in GLS because it was hard to get my money invested on futures, but after the big growth of SE (Community leage) it is getting easy at the moment. Basically I have all I am willing to invest in GLS at the moment already invested. Either I make a lot of money on the futures (so I have more to spare) or some get delisted.
"Accumulate as much DKP as I can, so I have spare money, and can influence more LTD"
instead of
"use my meager DKP to try to influence one or two stock, didn't increase my networth as the result of my investment, and can only contribute to simEX on one or two stock, which might even be useless, because I only have limited money, and once it was all used up, I can only watch while the price keep going up, and at the end of the day, the price show up in simEx is still the incorrectly priced ones".
I will consider doing what you suggest IF I am in the Top 10 Lifetime, but until then, I stay away from shorting GLS.
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