I agree with Zukaus that the biggest risk with this stock at this point is if the game also goes to 360. That news alone could shave 30-50% off the stock price. The entire Japanese market would still get the game for the PS3, but a lot of gamers in NA and PAL would potentially get it on 360.
while i would buy a ps3 for this game only. i believe most people would rather wait until this game and ps3 prices dropped. it may make a repeat of ffx but that harshly unlikely since many sony owners swithced over to nintendo and microsoft in this generation of consoles.
Because FF XII came out too late in the PS2's lifecycle, just like FF IX on PS1, while FF X came out early in the PS2's life cycle just like FF VII on PS1. And FF X has benefited from a $20 pricepoint for like 4.5 years. And FF X got better reviews than FF XII. When I said most, I meant the majority of sales, but it is true that an amount of sales come from consumers who are not big fans.
However, it is reasonable to expect that FF XIII's sales will reach 3-4 million with some ease simply from fans of the series. FF VII reached 9.72 million, FF X reached 7.95 million+, FF XIII should reach 3-4 million from fans of the series and continue to climb as mainstream sales figure in.
American attachment rates have been 4-5% (PS2), 4-7.5%(PS), 1-3%(SNES). Japan attachment rates were 10-12.5% (PS2), 12-17.5% (PS), 8-15% (SNES).
In fact, the only game that really jumped out of any of the attachment %s was FFVII. Even that game never came close to some of the attachment rates that people on here are predicting. While not exact, there's a definite trend here and it crosses platforms. FF games tend to have the same attachment rates (roughly so). The fact that the SNES rates are very similar to the PS/PS2 rates should be noted.
Any reasoning for this? If that's true, why is XII selling so much less than X? (sales fell to nothing a lot sooner and at about 500k less in Japan).
I think FFs recent sales have been in large part due to being on the most popular home console. PS owners bought FF because it was a great RPG for their system. Perhaps those that now bought a 360/Wii instead will have to look elsewhere. Making a $600+ investment for a single game is a stretch for many, IMO.
Regarding FF games and attachment rates. Most FF sales come from fans of the series, thus you do not need a console to sell huge numbers for FF games to do very well. Meaning that extra sales of consoles will be the mainstream consumers who affect sales of FF modestly, while the people who intended to buy the game will have a system before or at the time of release of a new FF game.
I did not say this game will or will not be as popular as games like Halo 3 and WoW:BC.
I too expect a lot of people to be putting DKP into this one at the IPO, which is not exactly a bullish sign, but a steady flow of new players should slowly push this stock higher, perhaps higher than any realistic value.
I say this is a "fair" price despite the potential upside because there is significant risk to the downside due to the possible loss of PS3 exclusivity as well as the continuing poor sales performance of the PS3.
Additionally Final Fantasy may be popular but that has not pushed FFXII up to the 6-9 million range despite having the advantages of exclusivity and a huge install base. Although I think the circumstances have now changed for FFXIII with the updates to the trading engine making it easier to move large cap stocks.
I was talking Japanese only numbers...they're quite far away from 3 million (just over 800,000) and the sales have dropped to a very low number.
Even if it launched Fall 2008, it would likely be with an install base closer to 3-4 million in Japan.
FF also averaged about a 12% attachment rate for all the PS and PS2 games. There's no rational reason to see that double, especially considering how games like VII were considered some of the best ever. If the attachment rate stays the same, with your predicted console sales, it would lead to sales of 3 million. I would also argue that Sony has lost Japan and that means the attachment rate could skew even lower (reasoning for this is on previous comment).
If Final Fantasy games sold about 5-6 million with the massive PS2 install base, how well will it do with a drastically reduced one (especially in Japan)? That's the real question.
I am not able to go back and check your earlier comment, but I seem to recall you mentioning X, which IIRC you said was released with 5 million PS2s, is that correct?
I find it perfectly reasonable to expect roughly the same number of PS3s out there by the point this game launches, especially if its 3rd or 4th quarter next year. The PS3 already has 3 million sold and we're only in the 2nd quarter, Its likely the PS3 will be much closer to 5 million by the end of this year, possibly even hitting 5 million before Christmas.
What I was going off of to predict the sales of this game was this:
3rd quarter 2008 launch of the game. (I am guessing but it seems reasonable, anyone feel free to amend this if you have solid data or good arguments)
Install base at launch of 10 million PS3s.
2 Years before Final Fantasy XIV launches.
PS3 price cut sometime next year or this year of $100, with a further reduction in the following year of $50 when the smaller Chips ship.
By the time Final Fantasy XIV launches I am expecting approximately 25 million PS3s. I am going with a 20%-30% attach rate for this game by that time.
Feel free to point out any points that I might be mistaken on, I think a healthy discussion on this is good for both the stock price and the Sim Exchange in general.
I did compare it to VII and X in an earlier post. The PS3 is struggling to have even just 40% of the install base that those two games came into. Yes, it could sell some systems, but it's starting with a massive disadvantage because both games came out on systems that had fantastic sales.
Personally I think that too many people are inflating prices on here, believing that the Next Big Thing will suddenly cause sales to skyrocket.
If FFXIII sells what you're predicting, it'll have double the attachment rate of the FF games on the PS and PS2.
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