@Just_Ben, 1.4 Million is only 2.8% of 50 Million (Joe80's current worth). When I am sure of something, I usually dare to invest 10% of my networth.
Of course, Joe80's position is a little bit weak, due to the fact that : - going short on GLS is usually more difficult than going long on GLS. - one of the supporter of long position is Zukaus, whose networth is very big. - margin for profit is not big enough. His estimate is 135 - 145 DKP, and current price is only 20% higher than 145. Usually when shorting GLS, I tried to find those that are at least 30% - 40% higher, unlike going long, which only require 20% margin.
Joe80, I would suggest shorting other more interesting GLS stock, like Gears of War 2. (Disclosure : I am shorting GoW2 significantly). I think Zukaus would agree that GoW2 is a safe bet for shorting at its current price (907 DKP).
@Joe80, As I understand it, your post is : End of Week 3 : 91K. End of Week 6 : 130K.
"40,000 in its week 4 - week 6 (3 weeks period" translate to 13K / week in US. With 5K / Week in japan, and maybe 5K - 20K / week in Europe, I can still see it hitting 162K DKP GLS (my original prediction). It may not get 1.62 Million in 2008, but I am sure it will get 1.62 Million in 2009.
I stand by my prior prediction.
If you really believe that it should be way lower, you could short them again. As I stated before, I will only buy this stock when the price is right (131 DKP, which is 20% discount from my 162 DKP estimate, since I need at least 20% profit margin before investing in a stock).
Was that number after or before NPD released their numbers? There have been occasions when vgchartz would change their numbers after NPD releases their monthly figures to make their's look more accurate than they previously were.
@apujanata, Just want to add that VGC pegged this game at 91,000 in its first 3 weeks, which is identical to actual NPD sales for its first 3 weeks. VGC now has it only at 130,000 after its 6th week. Only 40,000 in its 4-6 week on sale. I stand by my prior prediction.
I see that your estimate is a little bit on the pessimistic side, while my estimate is a little bit on the optimistic side. We will see who is right in the next 2-3 month.
I currently only have 600K DKP tied up /invested in this stock. When the price is right (significantly below current 172 DKP price point), I will invest more. At the current price point, I will not invest more (I prefer to invest those money somewhere else, with more profit percentage).
Well, our opinions differ, and as they say that's what makes a market. I believe my estimates are quite conservative and 1.6 million is the minimum that this game will sell worldwide. However, it's obvious you disagree.
We could argue all day about how things like sequels and culture would affect sales but I believe I've already accounted for everything that you've mentioned in my estimates. It doesn't look like anything I've said is going to change your mind and my opinion too has not wavered since your last post, so let's just watch and see how the sales numbers turn out. I am especially looking forward to seeing European sales. Good luck.
@zukaus, Sure it charted 47 but look at the sales of the game that charted #10, only 11,000. So Prof Layton & the Mysterious Village is probably selling ~5,000 or less per week.
Layton only did 91k in FEB. It will likely top out at 200-275 dkp in NA. You say it could easily sell much more if its sales in NA match its JA long legs. However, this game is more geared to JA demographic and it is based on books that are very popular in JA. People in NA & EU have no idea or knowledge about the books this is based on.
You're saying it will likely get bumps when its sequels are released. If you mean JA, that's not going to increase sales much. The first sequel was released in NOV, so the bump is already there. When the last game releases, the 2nd will be more likely to get a bump than the 1st. If you mean NA, this game is not selling well here. Even if the sequels do come to NA, they're not going to have much if any effect on Layton's sales in NA. The first game will likely not even be available by the time the sequels release here.
EU sales will likely be the same as NA sales. So 200-275 dkp. Add JA sales & the likely sales in NA + EU, and you have a figure of 1.3-1.45 dkp. I was long on this stock for ~year, I've been following it since well before it released in JA & submitted it to the site for listing. But when I observed its sales more recently in JA & figured in its NA debut, I went from long to short.
I don't see this reaching over 1.5 dkp, and much more likely to be in the range of 1.3-1.45 dkp.
Professor Layton has never stopped selling in Japan. It charted yet again on this week's Media-Create charts at #47, almost a year and 4 months after its release. This games seems well on its way to 1 million+ in Japanese sales.
I also believe a 300k lifetime total in the US seems quite reasonable given the 91k it already sold. It could easily sell much more if its sales match the long legs of the Japanese. It will also likely get the same bumps as its Japanese counterpart whenever its sequels are released. Additionally I believe European sales are likely to at least match American sales and possibly a lot more given their love of the brain training series.
So I continue to hold my long position in this stock and I see very little downside especially at the current price of 160 DKP.
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1.4 Million is only 2.8% of 50 Million (Joe80's current worth). When I am sure of something, I usually dare to invest 10% of my networth.
Of course, Joe80's position is a little bit weak, due to the fact that :
- going short on GLS is usually more difficult than going long on GLS.
- one of the supporter of long position is Zukaus, whose networth is very big.
- margin for profit is not big enough. His estimate is 135 - 145 DKP, and current price is only 20% higher than 145. Usually when shorting GLS, I tried to find those that are at least 30% - 40% higher, unlike going long, which only require 20% margin.
Joe80,
I would suggest shorting other more interesting GLS stock, like Gears of War 2. (Disclosure : I am shorting GoW2 significantly). I think Zukaus would agree that GoW2 is a safe bet for shorting at its current price (907 DKP).