NPD has Fable 2 selling 1.2 million through 2008. VGC has 2.52 million for global LTD (1.53 million for US LTD). I think VGC is overtracking Fable 2 for US, (doubtful the game sold over 300k copies in January). I think a 3 million GLS forecast is more realistic at this point, and so the stock is overvalued IMO.
I'm still confident it my short - as far as I can tell, only 4 titles on the 360 have cracked 3 million sales and only 3 360-exclusive titles have cracked 2 million sales.
This game seems like it will end up like Mass Effect, it will get good reviews and sell well, but I am not sure about 4.5 million. It seems like it should be possible considering how Elder Scrolls IV sold, but I think this stock should be hovering around 100DKP above what Mass Effects number is, since that game was released in more red waters (and more recently) where as Oblivion was released in much bluer oceans. If this game delivers on all of its promises (with Molyneux you have to doubt) then I could see it breaking the 3 million mark. For now a 270-330DKP range seems reasonable to me.
Where is this stock going? As of February, Gears of War sold something like 4.5 Million... is Fable 2, even with more systems to sell to, going to approach this number?
Fable has a storied history and I suspect people burned of Molyneux's endeavors in the past may be hesitant to get behind this game.
I agree to an extent. I think Fable 2 has a better chance at the market then Mass Effect for several reasons. 1 is that it is a sequel to a game many loved, few hated. It was able to do about 2.6 million on Xbox 360 competing against PC which had the Lost Chapters exclusive for a long time. The re release of Fable on Xbox with the LC included sold almost nothing because the series was near dead at that time. If you ask me, they just waited to long to put it as a Plat title.
But I would think 3 mil would be a conservative bid on this, and Im guessing max 3.5 mil life time. This game already has a following, mix in some good advertising and come through on the missed promises from the original Fable, and you have a good chance at taking the market. Other things will help influence sales. Like the fact that you can play man or woman and have gay relationships. We will see how much buzz that brings the game...
I dont expect the Japanese market to add much to this game. But Fable 1 wasnt released (or didnt sell at all) in Japan according to VGC. So, there will be at least a slight increase there too.
It appears the market has been bullish on Fable 2 post GDC, but I have not seen anything that impressive. The first Fable did not sell anywhere near 4 million copies. I am thinking this will sell a lot closer to Mass Effect levels, which makes sense for a solid action RPG on the Xbox 360.
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Did you converted VGC's America # to US# ? Standard rule : 90% x America = US. IF 1.53 Million is for America, then US = 1.38 Million.