As Workwork and I (Comment 1 and Comment 2) mentioned previously on this stock, it is most likely overvalued, due to the fact that Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Ring of Fates (DS) is trading at around 136.73DKP. We are predicting nearly twice as many sales for this game on a system which will most likely have a smaller install base when this game is released or one equal to that of the DS when the DS Crystal Chronicles game was released.
Like Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors (Wii), which had been largely overvalued due to thinking that because it had the Dragon Quest name it would sell, despite the fact that it was a spin-off. The same thinking is at work here, because it is a Final Fantasy game it will sell, despite the fact that it is much different than the main series and would probably appeal to a slightly different audience. For the same reasons as the Dragon Quest game on the Wii, this needs to be dispelled in order for this stock to be corrected.
Due to these reasons, this game should be in the sub-220DKP range.
This stock remains overvalued. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Ring of Fates (DS) was released on a larger install base yet did not fair well commercially, that stock is currently trading around 170DKP (which is overvalued itself). As Workwork said, "We tend to over value games with a Final Fantasy brand name when it's a spin off from the traditional series." Due to this (and comments made in my previous post below), this game should be below 220DKP.
Looking at how Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Ring of Fates (DS) is trading (at around 160DKP), I think this stock might be due in for a price correction to around 225-230DKP. The Wii will probably have a smaller user base when this is released than when Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Ring of Fates (DS) was released for the DS.
This game will be slightly more popular on the Wii (since it is more of a party game, but might actually good and isn't just a collection of mini games) than on the DS, but the added advantage of portability might mean that the DS version ends up being more popular (and therefore this stock would probably be trading below or around Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Ring of Fates (DS) levels. Either way I think this stock might be a bit overvalued at the moment.
I guess, owning a Wii, i see this from a different perspective. From a strict numbers comparison to older systems and antiquated controls schemes yes, as a sequel this probably would fair about what Gaara42 is suggestion. Taken in the light of this being the only Wii game since Zelda to be an RPG that you control with the WiiMote, i think this will sell very well. As a Wii-Owner i see this as my next RPG purchase and my first opportunity to try castign spells using sometype of gestures rather than selecting things from a menu or an action-toggle button interface. Instead of buttonpress, buttronpress, HOLD Trigger Button press think Slash motion slash motion, draw a circle ->frost attack...
I agree with ErikAston somewhat. As has been said the sales of this game obviously won't be hampered by the hassle in trying to get all the gear together to play it to its fullest. But for some reason I find it hard to believe that this game will reach 3.5 million sales or more, I think some of the stigma of the first game will carry over to this game and hamper sales. I believe the Crystal Chronicles game for the DS could hit 3.5 million sales, but not this game.
As ErikAston said this game has sold only 400k in Japan but if you look at the shipments of this game, they total around 1.36 million (they actually should be a little higher). Since these are shipments and not sales, we don't know if this game got close to 1.36 million in sales but I would assume so since in Japan the sales were as high as the number shipped. Supposing this game gets more popular due to the taking away of restrictions and I still see this game only selling around 3 million, which would be more than twice the sales of the original.
I think this game might be a little overvalued, but not a lot.
FF3 remake and DQ:MJ both did 1 million in Japan alone on DS. FF12:RW might repeat the trick, with 400K in two weeks. FF:CC GC sold less than 400K LTD in Japan, but with the popularity of Wii, 1 million and change seems more likely.
In NA, I see the franchise growing. On Gamecube, it basically got a reputation as "the best game you shouldn't buy" due to the need for GBAs and link cables, but make the game less of a hassle, and it could break out and sell 1 million and change again.
In Europe/"others" there is less indication of how it might perform, but its reasonable to think it builds on FF:CC GC once again. If it sells 600-800K in "others" regions, total sales can reach 3 million.
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Like Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors (Wii), which had been largely overvalued due to thinking that because it had the Dragon Quest name it would sell, despite the fact that it was a spin-off. The same thinking is at work here, because it is a Final Fantasy game it will sell, despite the fact that it is much different than the main series and would probably appeal to a slightly different audience. For the same reasons as the Dragon Quest game on the Wii, this needs to be dispelled in order for this stock to be corrected.
Due to these reasons, this game should be in the sub-220DKP range.