Remember this is for the PC stock only. What was the last PC game to break 250,000 copies sold that was not a Blizzard production, related to The Sims genere, Spore, or Crysis? Because of those 4 hard hitting negative factors I think this stock should be under 25DKP...
pc exclusives are the only games that sell well on the pc look at the witcher cnc3(which was exclusive for some time) and now crysis but i think this game will sell really well
No need to respond to the comment as if I wrote it yesterday, that was the best prediction I could make at the time with the given information. Even then, I still think that this game will be able to reach 400,000. I think that a few games that we thought would do well, but didn't, may have caused several people to start under-estimating the PC market. Over a period of time after its release, this game should be able to edge to 400,000 copies or more worldwide.
When this game is finally released, the PC market will be healthier than it is now and the requirements to run this game won't cause a dent in its sales. I know many people who picked up Bioshock for the Xbox360 instead of the PC because they are waiting a year or so for prices to drop on PC hardware. I see this game being released in about a year or so, from that I expect it to sell well based on more people having transitioned over to Vista (assuming this is Vista-only) and hardware prices will have dropped sufficiently to warrant more people buying PCs that can play this game.
@Gaara42, I highly doubt this now that we have a sense of how PC games sell. Given that a game as incredible as BioShock can barely pull 300k copies, I would be forecasting this at 20 DKP. Single player PC games generally do not sell well either.
I think this game can get to 400,000 copies over its lifetime. For one it is a great looking game that promises to have an open world environment and a good story. The gameplay, the mechanic using your flashlight, will probably also draw many people in. I don't think this game will be an absolute hit because of its graphics, it might turn out that not enough people can run this game, which will create a cap on the number of games this can sell. Hopefully this game is very scalable so that people with middle of the road computers are able to play this game. I think that as more information is released, both of the gameplay and story, people will become more interested in this game and the hype will start to build. Even then, I expect a 400,000-500,000 copies sold over lifetime.
Shown off behind closed doors at last week's X06 by Remedy's lead writer Sam Lake, the 20 minute presentation gave us a glimpse at what could easily turn out to be the game of 2007. Following on from the impressive taster we were given at E3 2005, the Remedy chaps once again reminded us that Alan Wake is a psychological action thriller set in a sleepy Pacific North-western town. Heavily inspired by Stephen King and Twin Peaks, the plan is to craft a movie-like atmosphere, but structure the game like a television series, complete with episodic progress and cliffhangers.
You can read a interview with remedy at http://www.yougamers.com/articles/remedy_interview_-_part_1/ , the second is up and third coming. Mostly there is a large pc community, and even though this game will require a good one, intel price cuts are coming soon. Also you might consider that Max payne kept selling over a long period of time. I can't find sales figures for max payne 2 or max payne 1 on pc, so this could be a little high, but the first one sold about 880k on xbox according to vgcharts so there are obviously some people who would be interested in something from the same devs.
I'd definitely bid this up if the IPO was lower or if you can convince me that it will reach 65 dkp, given that the 360 version is more popular (even though these games are often more popular on PC). http://www.thesimexchange.com/pending_game.php?id=185
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