haha perhaps =P primarily though (maybe ideally?), i am more concerned about TSE having correct numbers. Or at least a semblance of correct numbers.
TSE is becoming more visible in the internet space and being seen as "that other analyst". i take pride in that and would like for TSE numbers to, on average, be pretty close with estimates.
@sagexsdx, I am sure you only feel that way when you are short on it. If you are long on it, you will say "Damn admin, feel my wrath" or something to that effect :).
@decidence, Interesting points decidence. Just a few questions:
Where did you get the number for Company of Heroes? Who are these admins that you talk about (because the numbers on the simExchange for GLS are not artificially revised downward by the admins, only selling by members can bring the price downward)?
Sorry to keep making comments but just to further my point.
Look at Company of Heroes that released almost 1.5yrs ago, that game was supposed to revolutionize RTS and was rated by PC Gamer as the best RTS game ever with a 96% score.
It hasn't even sold 2 million copies.
RTS and PC is not a market to make 10million sellers (aside from The Sims), people holding stock in SC2 at a price over 10million should really think carefully because when the sales figures comes out and the admins adjust this price down to 6-7million you guys are going to be mighty disappointed.
SC1 hasn't even sold through more then 10million worldwide. As of 10 months ago it was at 9.5 million, with 4 million in Korea alone. Original source: http://playnoevil.com/serendipity/index.php?/archives/1252-Starcraft-Total-Sales-How-long-is-the-Long-Tail.html
Just because SC is a big title the market for RTS is small, and a major part of that reason is because the market for PC games itself is much smaller then console games.
It's almost impossible for PC games to break the 10 million mark and I highly doubt it will be any different here.
SC gets a lot of press and hype because Blizzard is a money machine but that's all it is in the end... hype.
I agree that the RTS genre is not as hot as it was in the SC days, but Warcraft 3 (WC3) was still huge and is still a top seller today. I think there is still demand for an RTS if it is great--the problem is that other RTS makers didn't put out great games. Lots of RTS players have been waiting for a Starcraft 2, and I think we will see RTS come back with this game's release.
How do you know the forecast is 30% more than the total of SC1? Do we have global numbers (including South Korea and the rest of Asia) for Starcraft?
Are people forgetting this is a RTS? And the amount of people that are interested in RTS' these days is much less then when SC1 was released. And with that in mind how do you all think SC2 will sell 30% more then SC1?
This conversation has devolved I think because of both of us misinterpreting what each other have said. We have too many threads going on, so I'm content to drop it, since I can't seem find my bearings any longer.
I honestly felt your arguments were misplaced and in attempt to debate them I think we got off on a few tangents that don't make much sense anymore. I'm sorry we haven't been able to see each others points as clearly as usual.
Joe, I did not insult you. In fact you can call me a Jerk right out in the open if you like, but I have no beef with you. Do you have any idea the level of COMPLETE JERKS I've encountered in the last 10 months on TSE? Yeah I started off playing nice but why bother anymore. Here's a tip about ole Zeromous: if I insult someone it will be anything but subtle. Wouldn't that just make sense, me being such a jerk?
You know what my beef is? Why every statement I make, whether its crazy, wrong, right, friendly or weak, gets the same amount of downbids. I don't think its you so I have no beef with you specifically. The only reason I show up here nowadays is because I like trading, and I feel this place needs a bearish voice or two. Imagine my frustration at how unwelcome that is and how welcome copypaste numbers from whatever questionable internet source (they are all questionable to some degree).
My only wish is that I had more free time to heavily research my arguments and construct them carefully, so that I don't make subtle mistakes in my references for debaters to exploit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_computer_and_video_games#Top_PC_sellers_by_genre
Lineage2 sold has 14 million customers according to this. I'm not sure this corresponds to sales directly.... so I withdraw this fact.
This has been my second mistake this week unintentionally using questionable numbers to support my otherwise logical but apparently uncommon conclusions. It definately doesn't help dress up my argument when I make a mistake on numbers.
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haha perhaps =P primarily though (maybe ideally?), i am more concerned about TSE having correct numbers. Or at least a semblance of correct numbers.
TSE is becoming more visible in the internet space and being seen as "that other analyst". i take pride in that and would like for TSE numbers to, on average, be pretty close with estimates.