I haven't been following the comments on this stock, but I'll add to the discussion & reply to Gaara's posts. Gaara you said that there is more competition now in the RTS genre. However, the most popular and highly rated RTS games are the ones from Starcraft's era. A glance through Wikipedia entry on RTS games showcases the noteworthy games.
You state that SC2 won't get good sales in Korea because piracy is too prevalent there, yet SC1 itself sold 1 million copies between Jan 15 2006-May 21 2007 in Korea. (1 million in Korea in the past year, for a 10 year old title which is much easier to pirate!).
True piracy is a problem in Korea but that doesn't change the fact that 4.5 million people there have purchased a copy of SC1, which is easier to pirate than SC2 will be. And what if Blizzard adapts the new norm in Korea with a free game or very cheap game that is supported by microtransactions, thereby eschewing many people's reason to piracy as other successful recent games have done in Korea...
Another point is that SC1 came on the scene when there were less PC gamers and it didn't have a reputation, thus its first year sales were good but not spectacular. SC2 has literally the best PC game reputation to date. SC1 benefited most from longtail sales. SC2 will benefit with a bang right at release and also have a longtail, perhaps even a longer tail than SC1 now with new means of distribution, particularly online distribution.
SC1 has sold at least over 9.5 million & likely over 10 million. And its still being sold at most retailers. SC2 will hit at least 10 million IMO.
@Gaara42, When the game comes out and doesn't sell the way that people are expecting it to, you'll have the last laugh. But until then, dissenting opinions are often times met with downbids, especially those that espouse a short position on a generally highly regarded stock.
I agree, for such a highly traded stock, I am surprised no one has refuted by assertions for why this stock is very much overvalued (these comments were made here: Comment 1, Comment 2 and Comment 3). Bleezy attempted to disprove one of my comments but when I responded with a list of games and series that are now respected in the RTS genre and competition for this game, there was no reply, only several downbids.
People do not want to dispel the idea that such a revered franchise does not always sell 10 million+ copies no matter the hype (except for Pokemon but that is because it has merchandise, TV series and an industry behind it keeping the kids coming back for more), especially when many new series have cropped up since its inception in that particular genre. Few hear would think that Mario can still reach the highs of the NES era, he will most likely never again sell 17 million + that several of his SNES and NES era games did. It is because of this and other reasons mentioned in my other comments, that I believe that this game will sell between 7 million to 9 million copies or 700-900DKP, though as more information is assimilated that might be lowered or raised.
what were the lifetime sales of Warcraft III? vgc doesnt have it listed. i think if we look at how well wc3 sold, it could be a good indicator of how accurate the current price is.
ps. i agree with gaara42 and think the current price is way inflated.
Can people provide reasons for why they downbidded my posts?
Read this article and you will understand why I think the current price is overblown. People are relying to much on the fact that Korea will provide a huge portion of sales, even though piracy (even among the rich who can afford the games) is rampant, many people play at Game Cafes and even if it is a national sport, people may watch it on tv and follow their favourite players, but that does not mean they will go out and buy a (legitimate) copy of the game.
700-900DKP seems like a more reasonable estimate to me.
What other competition? How about Supreme Commander, Company of Heroes, Warhammer 40,000, Command and Conquer, etc.
As I stated in my previous post here (reason for the downbid on it is unknown), I think many of the sales in South Korea won't happen because pirating is so prevalent there and most people will go to Game Cafes there to get their fix of SC2 rather than buy the game.
A price of 700DKP seems more reasonable to me, this stock has been buoyed by hype ever since its release.
@-THE-RAY-, The Sims and Half Life are terrible examples to use in comparison to SC2 and SC1. You should compare it to sales of Warcraft2 and Warcraft3. Or better yet Command & Conquer 1 and 2 which both sold exactly 2.46 million according to VGC. And then Tiberiun Sun which sold 3.07 million.
@ixaarii, The 3D that will be Starcraft should be similar to how Warcraft3 is 3D, works fine on PCs that run Starcraft (like mine). I currently play Warcraft 3, and everyone that plays that will be looking to get Starcraft 2. Same with people playing Starcraft 1. Pretty much Blizzard RTS' are and have been the games that all other RTS games are compared. Others have tried, Microsoft's Rise of Nations, Age of Empires, and Supreme Commander to name a few. Rise of nations came out, looked promising but balance inssues with no patches slowly drove people away (i think). Not sure what happened to Supreme Commander. And the thing with Age of Empires, is there are no real cash tournaments or world rankings you know? Like it's not on TV like Starcraft and Warcraft are (in Korea). And i mean, world compeitions and the Warcraft/Starcraft scene are still strong as ever and just waiting for the release of SC2 to give this whole scene the big refreshing boost it needs! (im excited)
@Gaara42 "Also, since the first Starcraft a lot more competition has entered the arena, I don't think an RTS can dominate the genre like Starcraft did in the 90s, there is to much other games to cannibalize Starcraft II's sales."
What other competition? People are just waiting for Blizzard to release Starcraft 2, and they have been waiting for a long time! You already know how big of a deal SC and WC are in South Korea, and it's also very big in Europe. Down there, they have Warcraft and Starcraft competitions on TV!! For the last 8 years or whatever, it's been Blizzard RTS that have set the standard in this PC Genre by a long shot. I do agree this stock is very over priced looking at other games (C&C). I think if Blizzard markets this game as the best thing to happen to RTS gamming since Warcraft (which i believe it will be), then i would think 5 million, which is a lot for a PC game. That would be with Blizzard running TV ads and marketing the game like WoW. If they don't, then expect sales along 3.5 million. In general PC games are down, and this game will not miraculously revive this sector. However, the people that currently play Warcraft3, Starcraft, Age of Empires, Supreme Commander, Command & Conquer, will dable in this game. And looking at VGC, all of those games sold 2.5 to 3million each. And Starcraft 2, should take a large chunk out of each still existing RTS playerbase out there.
A lot of gaming in South Korea is done at Game Cafes, so it is possible that this will only sell 1-2 million there, yet that could service tens of millions of people since they can more easily visit a Game Cafe, pay a small fee, play with friends and not need to save up money to buy a machine needed to run this. Also, since the first Starcraft a lot more competition has entered the arena, I don't think an RTS can dominate the genre like Starcraft did in the 90s, there is to much other games to cannibalize Starcraft II's sales. At present the price seems to high.
@-THE-RAY-, one thing that's crucial imo is: Starcraft had 2d graphics, brilliant ones, graphics that allowed the game to run on super low end system very well looking and playing just as good as on high end systems, making it ideal for everybody and competition... sc2 has 3d graphics which at this stage in time don't think scale so well...
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You state that SC2 won't get good sales in Korea because piracy is too prevalent there, yet SC1 itself sold 1 million copies between Jan 15 2006-May 21 2007 in Korea. (1 million in Korea in the past year, for a 10 year old title which is much easier to pirate!).
True piracy is a problem in Korea but that doesn't change the fact that 4.5 million people there have purchased a copy of SC1, which is easier to pirate than SC2 will be. And what if Blizzard adapts the new norm in Korea with a free game or very cheap game that is supported by microtransactions, thereby eschewing many people's reason to piracy as other successful recent games have done in Korea...
Another point is that SC1 came on the scene when there were less PC gamers and it didn't have a reputation, thus its first year sales were good but not spectacular. SC2 has literally the best PC game reputation to date. SC1 benefited most from longtail sales. SC2 will benefit with a bang right at release and also have a longtail, perhaps even a longer tail than SC1 now with new means of distribution, particularly online distribution.
SC1 has sold at least over 9.5 million & likely over 10 million. And its still being sold at most retailers. SC2 will hit at least 10 million IMO.
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