@mrahaju, I also believe that M&S at Winter Olympic will decrease the sales of this game, even though there are significant differences between normal Olympic event/games and Winter Olympic games, such as no ice skating etc.
The major reason of it is : - Balance Board support for Winter Olympic Wii - more developed multiplayer co-op and competitive gameplay.
Text from Olympic Winter games : The Wii version of the game will allow for the use of the Wii Balance Board and will see more developed multiplayer co-op and competitive gameplay.
6mm LTD sounds good. That means the game would still have to sell another 33% of current LTD to make the GLS forecast. I think 33% at this point is a bit of a stretch with the Olympics over and the game out for over a year in all markets.
@deftangel, Looks like my Europe prediction for M&S is too high. I assumed 3 Million, using UK = 33% of Europe, while it should be using 42%. This in reinforced by the fact that France, the 2nd biggest Europe Market, only have 700K combined sales. If we assumed 400-450K Wii version sales, it means 1.5 Million for UK+France, which is about 60% - 65% of Europe. German, the 3rd market, is big, but mostly PC based. 2.5 Million for Europe should be closer to actual.
Having said that, shorting this stock is one of stupid thing I have ever done. I forgot that I shouldn't put a short when the profit margin is so low, especially against Wii games.
Well, luckily I am not too deep into this one (only 1 Million DKP short, after partial bail out today), so not big potential loss for me (of course, losing DKP still hurts :D ).
Well GoNintendo posted a PR from France where they talk about advertising the game some more for Xmas 2009. (700k combined in France by the way).
http://gonintendo.com/?p=64948
It's also easily Top 20 still in the UK so it is still selling. If your LTD estimate is correct I would see the current prediction as "attainable". I'm not sure it would sell that many but with it still charting, a possible budget release on the horizon and the Wii install base ramping up at an alarming rate, I certainly wouldn't short it.
The lack of decent 3rd party games on the Wii can't be hurting it either. It's been out a year now.
@deftangel, It would really help if you can give the URL to that Sega statement, since it is crucial for the GLS prediction. Any updated shipment figure from Sega ?
According to you, the range should be be 6.5, with maybe maximum range is 7 Million. Right now, the price is 748, about 7% higher than your maximum figure.
NPD # is around 2.1 Million. Japan is 600K, and Europe should be around 3 Million (converted from UK's 1 Million LTD # a.k.a. Diamond ELSPA award), which give us 5.7 Million total. Let's round them up to 6 Million, LTD, WW. Since Olympic is over, this game shouldn't see any significant sales increase in the future.
This is the game for players that enjoy the Olympics and finally get to see Mario and Sonic face off other than Brawl. If you like Mario and Sonic you better get this game.
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I also believe that M&S at Winter Olympic will decrease the sales of this game, even though there are significant differences between normal Olympic event/games and Winter Olympic games, such as no ice skating etc.
The major reason of it is :
- Balance Board support for Winter Olympic Wii
- more developed multiplayer co-op and competitive gameplay.
Text from Olympic Winter games : The Wii version of the game will allow for the use of the Wii Balance Board and will see more developed multiplayer co-op and competitive gameplay.