Topseller war Mario Kart Wii für Wii. Auf Platz zwei Grand Theft Auto IV für PS3. Das Treppchen komplettiert Dr. Kawashima: Mehr Gehirn-Jogging für Nintendo DS. Insgesamt endet der Vergleich Handheld gegen aktuelle Konsolen fünf zu fünf.
I think for a game that is getting so many sales from Europe, taking shipment numbers and subtracting several hundred K will be just as accurate as trying to add up sales estimates from every country in Europe and the handful of other notable markets. Missing a fairly small country could miss 100K or 200K sales.
Arbiter was saying just in February that the game likely wouldn't hit 12M units, and then it shipped 10.83M through March. And it will probably ship another 1M units over the April-June period.
And I said I wouldn't speculate about 14 or 15M units in February, but now I don't know how this stock can be valued below 14M units. How the stock has fallen over the last month is beyond me.
Maybe its just because I've come to expect the unreasonable from Nintendo over the last year, but I'd honestly peg lifetime sales of Brain Age 1 at about 19M, and BA2 sales at about 16M right now. I just think the launch of BA2 has pushed the series to Nintendogs levels in Europe. Granted, the original game is generally charting higher.
@ErikAston, are there any numbers on sell through vs shipped on this title? It sounds like your analysis is completely based on number of copies shipped out.
This game is much bigger in Europe than America. Top 10 in America in December, in the 5th month of release, is a big accomplishment. But its actually bigger in Europe, and that's how it will reach 12 and 13M units sold.
And for a different look at the legs: the game shipped 5.5M in the 9 months April-December 2007, bringing total shipments to 9.84M. **In the same period, the original game, without a launch boost in any territory, shipped 4M units, bringing the total to 11.71M.** This sounds to me like 12M is in the bag. The original is about to hit 12M, and it has a 1M unit disadvantage in Japan!
@ReyBrujo, It seems my guess was more accurate than yours, as Nintendo itself reported that 2.8m copies of this game were sold in Europe by the end of 2007.
@starship, I believe you are underestimating Europe and overestimating North America. I remember a graphic in a Nintendo presentation where they showed Europe sold more than twice Brain Age copies than North America. I would say it is at 5m/1.4m/3.5m right now. In any case, this stock is very undervaluated.
@apujanata, I think it's at ~ 10m worldwide at the end of 2007. Japan ~ 5m NA ~ 1.5m - 2m Others ~ 3m
I think we will see more than 10.5m for it in the upcoming quarterly Nintendo results.
These type of games sell steadily for a long period of time (Notice how the original Brain Age still sell extremely well) so expect more than 15m for it when all is said and done.
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Topseller war Mario Kart Wii für Wii. Auf Platz zwei Grand Theft Auto IV für PS3. Das Treppchen komplettiert Dr. Kawashima: Mehr Gehirn-Jogging für Nintendo DS. Insgesamt endet der Vergleich Handheld gegen aktuelle Konsolen fünf zu fünf.
And the GoNintendo link, in English!
http://gonintendo.com/?p=49253
Best-sellers in first half of 2008 in Germany...
1. MK Wii
2. GTAIV PS3
3. Brain Age 2