@feelmyring, Let me start off by saying thanks for doing the upbid (I didn't think it was you that downbid me because you are a good contributing member of the site).
My logic is not based on just what you stated (I merely brought a little more info to the table about GameStop because it was brought into the conversation), instead it is based on mostly counter-arguments to your points: 1) DS Download play never significantly hurting the sales of past games 2) Mario Party games generally having good sales even in the light of bad reviews 3) A glut of parents who will stil buy this game for their children 4) The release week of MP8 not being counted in its count for the NPD numbers in June 5) I do not remember any Mario Party game really receiving any kind of buzz (in the way of major advertising and the such) 6) Being that MPDS is the first MP for the DS, then I believe there is still a good audience for MPDS and can still have MP8 looked at for some inference (though not on its own) 7) A large DS installed user base along with large sales of the DS expected during the December NPD reporting period 8) This game has shown that it can rake up sales in other territories (Japan), though markets are obviously different, the sales numbers should tend to be higher than other DS new releases during its first couple months
You have made some good points also and it merely (for those looking to buy or short the future or lifetime - some of these points for both sides can be used for predicting lifetime sales as well) allows people to consider as many factors as possible when choosing a position to take.
It seems like your logic for this game selling well is: people are too stupid and uninformed not to blindly walk into a Gamestop and buy this game.
Of course there's going to be a segment of the game buying population that don't care that MPDS doesn't have a lot of what should be standard features. Of course there are people that are going to buy this game regardless of what the reviews say (should they read them; but since they're too stupid to not buy this game, they're probably too stupid to read). I just don't think that amount of people will exceed 350,000 in December, due to a number of factors.
My reasons are thus, culled from previous posts, with some new additions: 1) The lack of some features (Nintedo Wi-Fi), and the presence of others (4 on 1 card multiplayer) 2) Overall poor reviews 3) A glut of superior DS purchases 4) A November 20th release date (first week sales not in DEC NPD) 5) Total absence of any kind of holiday buzz about the game 6) I don't think good sales of MP8 will translate into good sales of MPDS
Oh, and lstormy10, I don't know why you were downbid, it wasn't me. I upbid you to get you back to even on the comment.
@apujanata, I am not quite sure how the GameStop bestsellers list works exactly, but I want to restate the fact that I am going by the official list they put in their email newsletter each week (not the one they list on their homepage). The one in the newsletter is weekly I believe and the one on the homepage for GameStop is daily I believe.
This gamestop.com bestsellers list, is it a daily / non-stop thing (like Amazon list), or is it a weekly / monthly thing (like M-create or Famitsu Top 30) ?
IMO, casuals (which are the target market of Mario Party games) does not care for WiFi. Of course, most of SE care about WiFi, or online capabilities of console games. Casuals are not even aware of difference between those 360 and PS3 different SKU.
@feelmyring, I would just like to point out that the GameStop list of bestsellers does include Mario Party DS as of this week. I doubt those buying the game will care a whole ton about any wifi capabilities because if they did, then they would have probably also read the reviews (which apparently those that buy the title don't very much).
@lstormy10, I am wondering why I was downbidded for this comment. If I mixed up some facts and that is why, then I would like to know so that I will know for future reference.
@apujanata, I don't remember what my position in MP8 was, but I doubt I was short it. MP8 was one of the few viable, safe bets for the Wii at the time it came out, and MP games always sell well on consoles. The crux of my point is that I don't think the sales for MP console games will translate into MP handheld sales. As far as I'm concerned, MP8 has little to no bearing on MPDS.
About Mario Party 8. In June, people think it will sell only 38DKP, (maximum ever) . Reality = 42 DKP. Lost 4 DKP (10%) In July, people think it will sell only 13.85 DKP (near release of July figure), while actual # is 17.72 DKP. Lost 4 DKP (25%).
If you shorted Mario Party 8 near NPD release, you would have lost 10% to 25%.
What was your position on MP8 during June and July period ? If you are correct at that time, you might also be correct this time. But if you position yourself incorrectly before, you may also position yourself incorrectly this time.
BTW, since I am newbie (only joined Dec 07), I don't have any history with MP8.
@lstormy10, I know all the numbers, and I know all the relevant facts, I just draw a totally different conclusion than you do from them.
Two more points: the game isn't on Gamestop.com's list of DS bestsellers (at least it wasn't for me), and there's no wifi, which I think will keep away older users.
@feelmyring, Both the DS and the Wii have an install base that has a number of different age groups represented. Also, may I remind you that the number of people who own a DS is a lot greater than the number of people who own a Wii as of now? A good number of people in the target audience probably do not have MP8 for the Wii already and would rather pay a lower price for a DS version that includes much of the same things. Also, about your thoughts on 4 players being able to play off of 1 DS game card: this has never killed sales of any DS game in the past and I do not believe that it will kill sales of this DS game. (Thanks for the compliment about the points that I made.)
@apujanata, I knew that it was not you that had the limit of 35DKP. I was simply agreeing with you (the tone of my first sentence was not conveyed properly and caused the confusion - it would have been better conveyed in spoken word instead of written word, if you know what I mean). I also do not see it likely for this title to hit over 50DKP.
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Let me start off by saying thanks for doing the upbid (I didn't think it was you that downbid me because you are a good contributing member of the site).
My logic is not based on just what you stated (I merely brought a little more info to the table about GameStop because it was brought into the conversation), instead it is based on mostly counter-arguments to your points:
1) DS Download play never significantly hurting the sales of past games
2) Mario Party games generally having good sales even in the light of bad reviews
3) A glut of parents who will stil buy this game for their children
4) The release week of MP8 not being counted in its count for the NPD numbers in June
5) I do not remember any Mario Party game really receiving any kind of buzz (in the way of major advertising and the such)
6) Being that MPDS is the first MP for the DS, then I believe there is still a good audience for MPDS and can still have MP8 looked at for some inference (though not on its own)
7) A large DS installed user base along with large sales of the DS expected during the December NPD reporting period
8) This game has shown that it can rake up sales in other territories (Japan), though markets are obviously different, the sales numbers should tend to be higher than other DS new releases during its first couple months
You have made some good points also and it merely (for those looking to buy or short the future or lifetime - some of these points for both sides can be used for predicting lifetime sales as well) allows people to consider as many factors as possible when choosing a position to take.