@Laoldar, Was VGC tracking sales data when the other games were released, or are they just pulling numbers out of the vapor again?
I realize that the games were successful on other systems. I realize that Mario games translate well to the DS. BUT. The games that have translated well have all been either WILDLY successful on a previous system (Mario Kart), or platformers (New Super Mario Bros., Super Mario 64 DS). The other Mario games are games like Mario Hoops, Mario vs. Donkey Kong, etc. non-core Mario games, in other words.
I think this is going to be an extremely hit or miss game; either I'll be right, or I'll fall back into obscurity out of the top 100.
Quoting VGC numbers is dangerous, I'd just like to re-iterate. I'm sure you know that, Laoldar, I'm just throwing it out there for any new people who might be tuning in. They might have quasi-reliable trends for newly released games, I don't know how good they are for actual historical sales data.
Using vgchartz as a rough estimate, the lowest selling Mario Party games were for the Gamecube, with sales around 1.5 million copies each (and the console series was being released every single year, while this is the first DS effort) for a console that had sold about 22 million units.
The DS game is the first in the series for the system (the first MP for a system always sells the best) and it's going for a system with over 50 million units sold. Heck, the Wii version has moved well over 2 million units with only about 11 million systems.
Even if the DS version has HALF the attach rate of the Gamecube versions (I'll even ignore the Wii version, which has done quite well), this game would sell about 1.75 million copies. If it keeps the attach rate of the Gamecube versions, it could get over 3 million. I'm not claiming it'll sell that high, but I see no reason to think that this title is overpriced. Every single Mario game on the DS has sold quite well so I see no reason why an established, popular franchise won't do so as well.
@Laoldar, I don't think multiplayer will cut into sales, I think multiplayer off of one game will cut into sales. I don't think that the target demographic for this game is twenty-forty somethings who will all go out and buy a DS game, I think the target is for school kids who want to play a co-op game on the bus ride home from school.
I think everyone is WAY overestimating this game, and much like BioShock, I think I'll be borne out when NPD futures come out.
For one thing, Mario Party Advance was nothing like the console versions, while Mario Party DS is.
Mario Party games sell because they cater to players who like playing simple goofy games with their friends. It's a multiplayer experience. Mario Party Advance didn't feature many 4 player minigames, and it's an incredible pain in the butt to do that with the GBA anyways. You can't expect an entry in a franchise to do well if it lacks the main point of the franchise.
In comparison, Mario Party DS is built as a portable version of the console game and focuses on multiplayer (4 can play wirelessly off one cartridge), much like the console games. The GBA game suffered because it wasn't a true Mario Party game. It was a collection of single-player minigames with the name tacked on. This version does not suffer that problem.
Why would you think the multi-player component would cut into sales? I think it will increase sales because players will be more likely to pick up a party game if it only costs $30 to have a portable game of 4-player Mario Party, rather than $120.
@-THE-RAY-, Why wouldn't you count the only example of how Mario Party games will sell on handhelds as an example of how Mario Party games will sell on handhelds? It would seem to me that there's at least one example of why this game shouldn't be valued as high as it is.
Also, this could have been mentioned already, but it looks like this game will be multi-player with one card. That could cut significantly into sales.
@feelmyring,according to vg charts mario party advanced got an averege of 60-65% rating(people said it was the worst one of the series) and still got sales of 200,000 in japan.so i wouldnt count those sales as how this game might sell on DS.
@-THE-RAY-, How does it sell on handhelds? Is there precedence for this selling 1.6 million copies on a handheld platform? How many different platforms has Mario Party been on? I'm only aware of three platforms (N64, GC, Wii), none of them handhelds.
@feelmyring, I don't know. You can play with your friends wirelessly, and Mario Kart translated to DS in a huge way.
The lack of crossing orders in the IPO phase may simply have been that no one knows where this could really be. The bid-ask spread of the orders I saw were huge.
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Was VGC tracking sales data when the other games were released, or are they just pulling numbers out of the vapor again?
I realize that the games were successful on other systems. I realize that Mario games translate well to the DS. BUT. The games that have translated well have all been either WILDLY successful on a previous system (Mario Kart), or platformers (New Super Mario Bros., Super Mario 64 DS). The other Mario games are games like Mario Hoops, Mario vs. Donkey Kong, etc. non-core Mario games, in other words.
I think this is going to be an extremely hit or miss game; either I'll be right, or I'll fall back into obscurity out of the top 100.
Quoting VGC numbers is dangerous, I'd just like to re-iterate. I'm sure you know that, Laoldar, I'm just throwing it out there for any new people who might be tuning in. They might have quasi-reliable trends for newly released games, I don't know how good they are for actual historical sales data.