@Gaara42, very curious why you think this won't be bundled. Of the bundle-candidates I see this one as one of the most probable. I see it as only a matter of time.
100DKP is too low, IMO. In my worst case scenario : - first 3 month of Uncharted in US : 117 + 100 + 70 = 287K - first 3 month of Uncharted in EU : something between 200 - 400, so let's pick 200K - first 3 month of Uncharted in Japan : let's say it is 100K Total of first 3 months : 587K + 10% (for others) = 650K.
IF (a big if, which mean may not happen) there is NO lower priced edition in the future, then LTD could be 650K + 40% (for the additional sales after first 3 months) = 900K, or 90 DKP.
If we take optimistic view, then those 90 DKP will suddenly turn into 145 - 180 DKP, which is why I think your 100 DKP is too low.
The real question is why is the lifetime sales for this game still so high, it should be around 100DKP, especially since this is a PS3 game, so it won't have extremely long legs and unlike Motorstorm or Forza, its doubtful it will be bundled. The game isn't getting released in Japan (and if it was it wouldn't sell well). If someone has European charts showing how Uncharted did there (IGN says it was released on 7 December), it would allow for a better gauge, but the lifetime sales of this stock is still overvalued and should be at 100DKP.
Why is the Dec future for this game still so high ? Based on data from previous post : Uncharted did 117k in November (4 week), Says NPD. 186 says VGC. VGC overshoot Uncharted by 58%.
Actual weekly rate for November is 117 / 4 = 30K (rounded up). Rough Estimate for Dec : 5 weeks x 30K (assume that Dec weekly rate is the same as november, since Dec is holiday, and not higher since PS3 games are more front loaded) = 150K.
If we assume that Dec weekly rate is not 30K, say only 20K (since a lot of retailers feedback on Dec 07 mentioned that Uncharted is not moving), then you only have 100K sales in Dec 07.
At the current 184K, this future is already 20% higher than my most optimistic estimate.
@Joe80,Yes this is way underpriced.VGC have been under estimating things by an average of about 50%.
So its currently selling at about 45,000 (4.5dkp) a week x 1.5 = 67,500 (6.5dkp)a week.And sales are going to increase coming close to christmas so it could easily hit this future and could possible sell 20-25dkp.
@Powertrade, Uncharted was only available for 12 days in NOV's Future period. It will be available in DEC's Future period for 35 days, including 24 days before Christmas day. It would only need to avg 24,000 a week to reach 120,000. I think Uncharted will sell more in DEC's Future than it did in NOV's Future.
Look at Ratchet & Clank FToD on PS3. 1st 14 days= 72k in sales The 5 weeks after that= 267k --- Difference [267k-72k]= 195k.
This game was phenomenal, I hope it catches up to Resistance in terms of sales. It really deserves it. Sony should have a stronger marketing push for this game considering it's the best game on the PS3 right now.
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very curious why you think this won't be bundled. Of the bundle-candidates I see this one as one of the most probable. I see it as only a matter of time.