I think so. So people are buying a PS3 for X-Mass, consider what games they will pick up, or those who get a game for X-Mass. There isn't much high profile on the PS3 like on the 360 or Wii.
The future for this game is for December....hopefully we have all taken that into consideration. Also of consideration is that the street date is broken and more sales will now happen in November.
In Ottawa Canada I was in 3 different stores today (Superstore/Rogers/EB) and ALL of them were selling Uncharted.
@Gaara42, I must say I dissagree: while gaming categories might put both in 'action' mentally they fall completelly differently: Ratchett feels for kids, with Pixar type appeal, while Uncharted has adult characters. For me neither Lair nor Heavenly Sword felt adult oriented, both felt a lot more for a younger audience. I'm not saying I have an idea how this will affect sales... i'm just saying.
One thing that worries me, especially reading a recent moderator post about taking off older titles because first 3 months of data accurately predict: trading might stop, but for games like Uncharted and Ratchett I expect to hit big numbers because of install base and bundles 6-12 months from now. Countries getting bundles, platinum collections, price drops: for a long time IMO to come they will be recomended by PS3 owners to new ones as definitory exclusives so that I think will account for a lot.
You seem to have ignored the holiday sales push. Those titles were released nowhere near the holidays.
Besides, Uncharted is practically the only big title left coming out for the PS3 this year. A lot of PS3s will be sold this holiday season and Uncharted has the benefit of being the only highly-hyped PS3 title this holiday period.
We also still lack knowledge regarding the game's quality which Lair and Heavenly Sword did poorly on. Granted that R&C was critically-acclaimed, again, there's the "kiddy" image that it has going which does affect sales unrightfully.
Also, the sales of the two games you mentioned are monthly US sales. Although they contribute to the worldwide sales, they may not matter as much given that the US is the PS3's worst performing region.
I'm not contending that 1.5M may be a bit high and it most probably is. I simply voiced out my opinions which you may have overlooked.
Uncharted: Drake's Fortune and Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction are basically in the same genre, one in Action Adventure, the other is Action. You assume that because Uncharted: Drake's Fortune received a T rating and Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction received a E rating that Uncharted somehow resonates with the PS3 crowd more than Ratchet. Ratchet sold pretty well on the PS2 and was a respected series, so why would it resonate less with the PS3 crowd?
The claim you make is quite extraordinary and I would need to see equally good data to back up such a claim. At the moment I do not see such data and therefore based off of current data this game will do poorly sales wise. Consider Lair, which would fit your 'mature' PS3 crowd quite well, sold 38.71% worse than we anticipated settling at 57,800 copies in its first month. Heavenly Sword, which would also fit your 'mature' PS3 crowd, yet did 23.37% worse than we predicted, settling 139,000 copies in its first month. Both these were as hyped, if not more so, as much as Uncharted, yet both sold much less than we anticipated. Combine that this game will be facing stiffer competition than they did and it doesn't seem likely that a new IP will be able to get 1.5 million sales on a struggling console.
Due to these factors the game should be around 100-115DKP.
@Gaara42, Well you have to consider the genre of the game as well. I think that a title like Uncharted is more in-tune with the PS3's mature hardcore user base. It also has the benefit of being released in the holiday season.
With the string of disappointing sales figures that have accompanied recent high-profile PS3 releases this game will likely do worse than predicted (much like Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction which did 42.34% worse than we expected in its first month. This game has been riding high on the Naughty Dog name, hype, and some good reviews (a 86 metacritic score predicted). Due to this a price of 100DKP seems more accurate considering the current trend for PS3 exclusives.
Sorry, I was looking at the release date and mixed it with the month of the future.
But I do not think that 480-580k in two months makes the lifetime stock more believable because those are sales during the holiday months, I expect this game's sales numbers to drop off quite rapidly after that. This game's number I think are directly tied to how well the PS3 does this holiday season, if a lot of people buy Xbox360s and Wii's instead then I see this game doing only 1.15 million lifetime. If the PS3 finally catches on, then 1.5 million may be possible, but I highly doubt that still, especially with the huge amount of competition this holiday season.
The DECEMBER FUTURE is 28DKP...we are not listing one for the 1st 2 weeks of release in NOVEMBER.
If normal patterns of initial bursts of sales apply that would be an expectation of 200 to 300k in first two weeks with the 'drop off' being the 280k in December for a total of 480-580k in two months. Does this not make the lifetime more believable.
I'm not saying this will happen but that would be how I explain the 'low' December number.
Why are we predicting lifetime sales of 154DKP if the November future is around 28DKP? This would, from that future, probably sell 60DKP in America. It will garner little sales in Japan if it is released there. Europe is unlikely to buy more copies of this game than America, probably around 55DKP if we are optimistic. From this a price of 115DKP seems more accurate, though that might be high as I don't expect this game to have a very long tail.
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I think so. So people are buying a PS3 for X-Mass, consider what games they will pick up, or those who get a game for X-Mass. There isn't much high profile on the PS3 like on the 360 or Wii.